The real estate market in the United Arab Emirates features some unique attributes compared to its equivalents in the other countries of the region. This is mainly because UAE is a temporary home for a vast number of expats compared to the nationals which in turn affects their preferences and consideration when it comes to choosing a residential place. For example, while it is a common practice for residents of the region to think of buying an apartment as an investment hedge against inflation or as an asset for the future generation, this is not very common in the UAE since expats believe that sooner or later they will leave the country and go back to their home country and also other main factor that the residential supply is not all accessible to buy by foreigners, the property ownership for expats is available in two categories leasehold and freehold in certain regions. These factors affect the demand in the country in general. Even before the pandemic, the oversupply in Dubai & Abu Dhabi has posed a threat to the prices in the real estate sector whether in the residential sector or the office sector. According to a report by Deloitte, average sales prices for residential property in Dubai declined by approximately 7% between Q3 2018 and Q3 2019. Average rents also declined by approximately 9% over the same period, as the average price per square feet for apartments fell from AED 1,178 in 2018 to AED 1,090 as of September 2019. Meanwhile, in Abu Dhabi, there was an average slump of 8.7% over a 12-month period with villa rents falling by 8.4%. Has the sector been affected so far? The oversupply problem in UAE and especially Dubai worsened with the spread of COVID-19. In February 2020, Knight Franck stated that a total of 62,500 residential units are scheduled to be completed this year, which would be the biggest number of new units since 2008. In addition, Moody’s assumed that it is expected the pandemic to further slow home sales and lower rental prices in a market that was still suffering from persistent imbalances. According to real estate and investment management firm JLL, the UAE’s property market continues to be tenant-friendly in Q3 2020. The residential sector recorded an increase in construction activity with around 12,000 units handed over in Dubai and 600 units handed over in Abu Dhabi, JLL expects developers to continue offering a range of incentives and subsidies such as fee waivers, discounts, rent-to-own, as well as partnerships with banks to attract new investors and end-users looking to take advantage of the lower prices. In the UAE, homeowners have become more optimistic on the outlook for residential real estate in the coming 12 months as per the Peninsula sentiment survey. At the end of Q3 2020, 50% of homeowners responding to the survey reported that they expect home prices to be stable or increase in the next 12 months. Sensibly up from the 41% recorded only one trimester before. In particular, 33% of UAE homeowners expressed their belief that home prices will increase in the next 12 months, up from only 11% of respondents in Q2. Trend after the Pandemic: In the unpredictable times of Covid-19, both optimistic and pessimistic outlooks were shared on how pandemic will shape the real estate industry in the UAE. However, both types of projections asserted that modernity and inclusivity will be part of the new trend in the sector. Especially with the crisis due to the excess of offer, taking into account the below insights could help the developers to stand out from the competition: A. Renters/buyers will prioritize mixed-use developments when thinking of renting/buying an apartment Residents are now more prone to choose an apartment in a place where there is a mix of commercial and educational facilities to avoid going to crowded places. B. Renters/buyers will refurbish their tastes when it comes to renting/buying an apartment The pandemic has forced many people to work from their homes, which then need changed from the pre-Covid setup. For example, more and more people would now choose homes that are soundproof or that have a space for exercising. C. Residents will opt for lower density properties Covid-19 brought out the risk that high-density property could have on residents. Hence, it is believed that developers will start considering designs that maintain new distancing standards. D. On a medium- long term, the preference of a well-aired office space will be on the rise According to CBRE, buildings are currently required to comply with a minimum of 20% fresh air intake, while some choose to exceed this requirement by going up to 30%. However, this is bound to change as businesses will prioritize office spaces with good indoor air quality and ventilation. Sources: https://www.constructionweekonline.com/business/265702-lootah-ceo-shares-top-5-trends-to-transform-uae-real-estate-market http://cbre.vo.llnwd.net/grgservices/secure/How%20COVID%20is%20changing%20office%20design.pdf?e=1595837891&h=0608113c7dee3f8d62c0c6cddc611d30 https://www.bayut.com/mybayut/property-ownership-rules-foreigners/ https://www.peninsula-reh.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/HomeSentimentSurvey-Q3-2020-FullReport.pdf https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/xe/Documents/realestate/me_real-estate-predictions_dubai-2020.pdf https://news.residentialpeople.com/knight-frank-residential-oversupply-in-uae-causes-market-stagnation-1485/ https://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/markets/2020/02/11/Dubai-s-oversupplied-property-sector-to-add-more-new-homes-in-2020 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/coronavirus-to-exacerbate-dubai-chronic-property-oversupply-moodys-2020-07-20
According to a new report by Novartis Foundation and Microsoft, investment in data and artificial intelligence (AI) will be a key tool for improving health systems during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Released on September 9, 2020, the report "Reimagining Global Health through Artificial Intelligence: The Roadmap to AI Maturity"[1] concludes that low-income countries may soon outperform high-income states in the adoption of AI-based health technologies. It also points out that African countries could be the fastest adopters of AI-based health technologies due to the lack of existing systems. However, it also warned that these countries stand to lose the most if governments don’t seize this opportunity and invest more in AI. According to the 2020 Partech report, the health technology sector attracted 189 million dollars to Africa during 2019 which is equivalent to 9.3% of the total amount allocated, all sectors combined, to startups operating in Africa. This amount represents a growth of +969% compared to 2018. Hence, the health technology sector is not only growing but also mobilizes significant financial capital. Strengths driving AI adoption in Africa Technologies such as mobile trading platforms, e-banking, e-commerce and even Blockchain applications have often been adopted faster and more comprehensively in low and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, and health technologies are likely to follow the same trend, the report said. In addition, a major advantage for low-income countries is their exemption from the difficulties now faced by rich countries. Rich countries already have different types of data hosted by systems that are not always able to communicate, whereas they need to be interoperable[2] to be "effectively" used for AI. The opportunity therefore lies in the fact that low-income countries, not yet having these different systems, can once and for all develop a single ecosystem so that all data systems have the same structure and are interoperable. However, there are several constraints and challenges that must be addressed by the African continent in order to take advantage of the emergence of the digital in general and AI in particular in the health system. Pain points hindering AI adoption in Africa The lack of medical personnel is the primary challenge facing the African continent. Currently, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 12% of the world's population but faces 25% of the world's disease burden, while housing only 3% of the world's health workers. This is expected to worsen with a projected global shortage of health workers estimated at 18 million by 2030. In addition, the lack of data storage infrastructure available to health facilities represents a barrier to the rapid adoption of AI in the health sector. Thus, African governments need to put in place policies that promote data acquisition readiness and investment in AI development infrastructure such as data centers. AI as a driver for rebuilding health systems Many African countries are poorly prepared to deal with a new emerging disease such as Covid-19, in addition to the current burden of infectious diseases and the ever-increasing tide of chronic diseases. AI is therefore coming to rethink archaic health systems by shifting from reactivity to proactivity and then to prediction and even prevention. To successfully implement AI, a whole sustainable ecosystem must be developed to ensure equity and access to healthcare services for all. As healthcare systems rebuild during the pandemic, technological innovation must be at the heart of the agenda. Below are examples of companies leveraging the power of AI in the health sector across several African countries. This shows that the continent is building and developing a strong AI startup ecosystem for the healthcare sector. Nigeria: Nigerian startup Aajoh uses artificial intelligence to help individuals that send a list of their symptoms via text, audio and photographs, to diagnose their medical condition. The business was launched in 2015 and allows personalized medical diagnosis and treatment through predictive analytics. Founded in 2012, Ubenwa developed an AI app that analyses a baby’s cry to give warning signs of asphyxia, which is the third leading killer of infants worldwide. This machine learning tool provides instant diagnosis of birth asphyxia based on 1,400 pre-recorded baby cries that are analyzed by looking at factors such as amplitude and frequency pattern. Ghana: Founded in 2016, Minohealth introduced an innovative Medical Health System to democratize duality healthcare with AI for medical diagnostics, Cloud Medical Records system for hospitals, health ministries and patients, and big data analytics for health. Kenya: AfyaRekod is a digital health data platform that focuses on the patient and allows health facilities to capture, store, have real-time access and mobility of the patients’ health data. Developed as a patient driven platform, the patient maintains the sovereign right of ownership to their health data. The platform leverage AI and various blockchain modules to make insightful data driven decisions that allows doctors to provide better healthcare for patients. Rwanda: Though headquartered in California, Zipline operates in Africa leveraging drowns in order to to deliver blood to transfusion centres in remote areas. The team are delivering fresh blood and medicines to hard-to-reach rural areas across Rwanda daily. Zambia: Founded in 2017, Dawa Clinic is an Artificial Intelligence-based web-mobile platform which is aimed at facilitating remote healthcare service for pregnant women and early mothers. The App works with a self-monitoring kit that empowers mothers to receive remote maternal health. Through the App, mothers are able to monitor parameters like blood pressure, Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs), blood sugar levels, and other pregnancy-related complications. The information is wired remotely to a doctor for early intervention in case of any complications. Tunisia: SPIKE-X is a startup specialized in AI offering intelligent software packages that provide decision support solutions allowing to better understand, predict and influence human decision making of large groups and populations. SPIKE-X is a leader in innovative quality healthcare, e-Health and m-Health, and, Intelligent Security such as Intrusion Detection System, Access Control, Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) and Retail Analytics. For the healthcare sector, the company’s solutions help in Breast Cancer Detection, Skin Cancer Detection and Alzheimer Disease Classification. Examples of AI use during the COVID-19 era Rwanda: Rwanda probably has the most connected health system in Africa. The country has a virtual consultation service with over two million users, one third of the adult population. In March 2020, the Rwandan government and the private actor Babylon Health, operating in the East African country under the name babyl, entered into a ten-year partnership to give every Rwandan over the age of 12 access to digital health consultations. The consultations are paid for by the Mutuelle de Santé, the government's community health insurance scheme. The new partnership will also see the introduction of a platform for triage and verification of symptoms, powered by AI. Guinea: In Conakry, Tulip Industries, a startup created by Mountaga Keïta and specializing in technological innovation, is another example. Named "Health Scan", the startup has designed this tablet able to detect the symptoms of Coronavirus. The device is equipped with a thermal camera and sensors that measure a patient's body temperature, blood oxygen level and heart rate. According to the designer, Health Scan helps to better target the hottest part of the body and to obtain more reliable data than the thermo flashes commonly used on the forehead. This information is stored in a local database and artificial intelligence comes in to federate this information and try to draw inferences to help doctors better determine if the patient needs respiratory assistance upon arrival at a health center. Kenya: Launched in 2017, Tambua Health arms medical practitioners with an app that helps doctors and health practices spend less time and money diagnosing and treating cardiopulmonary diseases using lung and heart sounds analysis through machine learning. During the covid-19 pandemic, Tambua Health invents a patent-pending technology called T-sense. T-sense generates images of lungs by detecting the vibration of sound as air moves in and out of the lungs. It is able to do this by using sensor arrays placed on the back of the patient. With these sensors, T-sense can generate dynamic images of the lung like this using sound imaging. Using spatial distribution algorithms that have been trained from the company's proprietary database of lung sound images, Tambua's T-sense can detect healthy and unhealthy lungs with a high degree of accuracy. Egypt: Rology is a startup of the AUC Venture Lab (V-Lab), Egypt’s first university-based accelerator. Established in 2017, it is an on-demand teleradiology platform solving the problem of radiologist shortages and high latency in medical reports through artificial intelligence by remotely and instantly matching cases from hospitals with the optimum radiologist. Rology operations follow three main steps: upload, match and report. the hospital uploads the patient’s medical images onto the system. Based on the first auto analysis, Rology then matches the scan with the optimal radiologist, depending on availability and subspecialty. Afterward, the radiologist writes the final diagnostic report and sends it back to the hospital through a quality control process. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Rology helped solving the problem of shortage of radiologists, by proposing a diagnosis of Covid-19. In short, artificial intelligence will help bridge the gap in Africa's health systems. However, its use cannot substitute for the development of effective health infrastructures and the setting up of strict systems and protocols for examination and monitoring. It is also important to keep in mind that secure and privacy-friendly data governance must be part of ensuring a sustainable AI-based infrastructure. Finally, the countries that will fare best will be those that combine a good level of medical infrastructure with innovative technological solutions ! [1] The report "Reimagining Global Health through Artificial Intelligence: The Roadmap to AI Maturity" was authored by the Commission on Digital and AI in Health, created in 2010 by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and UNESCO to expand broadband access to accelerate progress towards national and international development goals, and jointly led by the Novartis Foundation and Microsoft. [2] Data interoperability is the ability of systems and services that create, exchange and consume data to have clear, shared expectations for the contents, context and meaning of that data. Safae Laghmari - Senior Research Analyst Sources: https://www.scidev.net/afrique-sub-saharienne/technologie/actualites/l-intelligence-artificielle-dans-le-secteur-de-la-sante-en-afrique-28092020.html http://french.peopledaily.com.cn/Afrique/n3/2020/0914/c96852-9760056.html https://www.broadbandcommission.org/Documents/working-groups/AIinHealth_Report.pdf https://www.agenceecofin.com/homepage/0909-80001-l-adoption-des-technologies-dans-la-sante-pourrait-aider-les-pays-pauvres-a-depasser-les-riches-dans-lacces-aux-soins https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202009/10/WS5f5a1ebba310f55b25a81cdd.html https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/20200915-l-intelligence-artificielle-service-la-m%C3%A9decine-en-afrique https://www.agenceecofin.com/entreprendre/1609-80257-guinee-mountaga-keita-a-concu-une-tablette-capable-de-detecter-les-symptomes-de-la-covid-19 https://camerounactuel.com/sante-a-base-de-lintelligence-artificielle-une-chance-pour-les-pays-a-faible-revenu/ https://cio-mag.com/e-sante-guinee-tulip-industry-des-ordinateurs-debout-adaptes-a-lafrique/ https://capecameroun.org/la-tech-africaine-se-mobilise-contre-le-covid-19/ https://auctoday.com/2020/03/31/roll-out-the-radiologists/ https://www.lepoint.fr/afrique/covid-19-l-afrique-sur-la-carte-mondiale-de-l-innovation-23-04-2020-2372639_3826.php https://www.mei.edu/publications/rethinking-egypts-economy https://www.alliance4ai.org/companies/https://clevva.com/press-release/6-artificial-intelligence-startups-africa-look/ https://medium.com/alliance4ai/ai-generation-learnings-from-alliance4ais-first-100-startups-in-africa-acfba0f753d1 https://www.distrelec.de/current/en/engineering/companies-robotics-ai-make-lives-better-africa/ https://www.leconomiste.com/article/1063657-technologies-de-la-sante-le-maroc-leader-et-futur-hub-en-afrique https://www.nydc.gov.zm/tafadzwa-kalisto-munzwa-dawa-clinic-co-founder/
The impact of COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean has presented an unparalleled challenge for the global and regional economy. Nations are mobilizing every asset at their disposal to implement strategies aimed at alleviating the multifaceted crises—economic, financial, social, and health—induced by the pandemic, while concurrently exploring various methods to manage the virus's proliferation and maximize life preservation. While a lot of attention is, and must be, put in analyzing how governments are reacting today in order to learn how to better react in the face of a similar crisis sometime in the future, the crisis also demands a question: why are some countries responding better than others?. The hard reality is that not all countries are facing the crisis from the same starting point. Developed countries are in a better position to face the different dimensions of the crisis due, to a large extent, to their available fiscal and healthcare resources. No country in the LAC region can afford the increases in public spending and investment carried out by developed countries in response to the pandemic, nor do they have the same access to international financing. Developing regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) must face large trade-offs when deciding where to allocate their available resources to respond to the effects of the crisis. Moreover, these tradeoffs are accentuated by the structural social inequality faced across the region. However, these limitations and conditions were not directly caused by the crisis that began at the start of the year, but rather the result of decades of policies that have created economies heavily burdened by social and economic vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities are a crucial factor when determining the region’s starting point in the face of the pandemic, the extent of the social and economic impacts, and its capacity to respond. Projected impacts on the LAC economy and growth As of January 2020, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) had projected GDP growth rates of 1.6% for 2020, and further 2.3% for 2021. However, these projections have drastically changed because of the crisis brought by the coronavirus pandemic. While the containment measures taken by LAC countries are bound to have an impact on their overall GDP growth, the uncertainty of how the pandemic will evolve, and how each country will respond, make estimations a very difficult exercise. The projections from the June 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook indicate that Real GDP growth in Latin American and the Caribbean is estimated at -9.4% in 2020 but will return to a 3.7% growth in 2021. The 2 largest economies in the region, Brazil and Mexico will experience similar trend. These projections are vastly different from the estimations done earlier in April 2020. [caption id="attachment_5426" align="aligncenter" width="607"] Source: IMF World Economic Outlook June 2020.[/caption] These projections consider several key assumptions. For instance, the forecast factors a larger hit to activity due to the lockdowns in the first half of 2020, and a slower recovery in the 2nd half of the year compared to what was estimated during the April 2020 estimations. Productivity will be impacted as surviving businesses focus on improving workplace safety and hygiene standards. Countries struggling to control infection rates will need to extend the lockdown and social distancing measures. On the other hand, countries that have controlled infection rates will not reinstate stringent lockdowns and will rather rely on more targeted measures (i.e. contact tracing, isolation, etc.). The projections also factor in the impact of the fiscal countermeasures implemented so far and anticipated of the rest of the year. The model also assumes that fuel prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged compared to the April 2020 version of the economic outlook, with average petroleum spot prices at $36.20 per barrel in 2020 and $37.50 in 2020, with expectations of an increase up to $46 (25% below the 2019 average). Nonfuel commodity prices are expected to rise faster than what was assumed in the April projections. During October, the IMF released its update with new growth projections, showing that the economic impacts of the pandemic are hard to estimate. The new projections show more positive scenario for the region and its 2 largest economies in 2020, but with slightly lower growth estimates in 2021 for the region and Brazil. We will likely see further changes in these projections as countries enter the year 2021, and actual figures for full-year 2020 become available. [caption id="attachment_5428" align="aligncenter" width="552"] Source: Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2020[/caption] Earlier during April 2020, the Interamerican Development Bank (IDB) developed a model depicting 4 shock scenarios for the region, taking into account external factors such as: GDP losses in the US and China, with some recovery towards the end of 2020 and into 2021; asset price shocks and their impact in financial markets and capital flows; and commodity prices for oil, metal and agricultural products. The variables were chosen by the key assumption that the shock from the crisis is external, so no internal impact from the measures taken by the countries was considered for the model. While the quantitative estimations might be outdated when compared to the IMF World Outlook projections, the different variables used for the model give some insight on how the crisis can impact countries and sub-regions differently. For example, low oil prices will have negative impact on major oil exporters such as Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador, while low metal prices will affect exporters such as Chile and Peru. While metal and oil prices do not tend to affect employment or consumption, they do have a large impact in public revenues, output, and investment. On the other hand, the prices on agricultural products affect employment, consumption, and public revenues (i.e. export taxes). Source: IADB As per the IADB projections, the LAC region will lose between 6.3% and 14.4% of its’ GDP during the 2020-22 period. The Southern Cone will be impacted mostly by commodity prices, but the dislocation of financial markets will also have a relevant impact, since countries in the sub-region tend to be financially integrated. For the Andean region, the impact might seem low at sub-regional level, but specific cases might vary per country. Ecuador, as an oil exporter, will be impacted by the low prices and its financing needs, and it cannot use the exchange rate to absorb the shock because its economy is dollarized. A similar case might be observed for Colombia, which is an oil exporter that normally attracts foreign investments to finance current account deficits. Peru, on the other hand, will be impacted by copper prices, but has relatively low debt and good access to capital markets. Mexico is also expected to suffer severe GDP losses, mainly because of its trade dependence with the US, globally integrated value chains and low oil prices. Central American and Caribbean countries can benefit from low oil prices, as they are mostly oil importers, but their GDP losses are mainly caused by the high dependence on the US for tourism revenues and remittances. In 2018, North America accounted for 69% of tourists in the Caribbean. Due to the current and expected travel restrictions, tourism in the Caribbean is expected to contract by 25%. Tourism represents 15.5% of the GDP in the Caribbean region, but the range of dependency varies greatly per country, as tourism expenditures represent 75% of Aruba’s GDP, compared to 4% for Trinidad & Tobago. The impact will also be felt directly in employment and household incomes, as the sector employs 2.4 million people in the Caribbean region. [caption id="attachment_5433" align="aligncenter" width="618"] Source: UN-ECLAC Statistics[/caption] Impact on Trade Moreover, the pandemic will also have an impact on the already weak international trade prospects for the region, additional to decrease impact in commodity prices. The first phase of the US-China agreement in January, on which China pledged to increase its importance from the US by at least $77 billion in 2020, could potentially displace LAC as a trade partner for China in some product categories. It is estimated that the value of LAC’s goods exports will be reduced by at least 10.7% by 2020, due to both a fall of 8.2% in prices and a 2.5% fall in export volumes. [caption id="attachment_5436" align="aligncenter" width="1011"] Source: UN-ECLAC[/caption] Note: The following growth rates are assumed for 2020: 1.0% (world), 1.0% (United States), 0.3% (Japan), 0.5% (United Kingdom), -0.2% (European Union, 27 countries), 3.0% (China) and -1.8% (Latin America and the Caribbean), plus an average reduction of 16% in the region’s commodity export basket. The greatest impact will be felt by the countries of South America, which specialize in the export of commodities, making them more vulnerable to a decrease in prices. In contrast, the value of exports from Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico would decrease less than the regional average due to their links with the US and their lower dependence on commodity exports. However, oil-exporting countries are expected to see the largest decrease in value. The COVID-19 crisis may also have an impact on the region’s export performance because of its effect on imports used to produce exports. Some of the most affected countries will be Mexico and Chile, which receive 7% of their intermediate inputs from China, followed by Colombia and Peru, which import ~ 5% of their intermediate inputs from China. Regional exports to China are expected to fall the most in 2020 (-21.7%), affecting products with linkages in the value chains within China (iron ore, copper ore, zinc, aluminum, soybeans, soybean oil, etc.). The most exposed countries in the region are Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru, which are the region’s largest suppliers of such products to China. [caption id="attachment_5437" align="aligncenter" width="981"] Source: UN-ECLAC Statistics[/caption] Note: The following growth rates are assumed for 2020: 1.0% (world), 1.0% (United States), 0.3% (Japan), 0.5% (United Kingdom), -0.2% (European Union, 27 countries), 3.0% (China) and -1.8% (Latin America and the Caribbean), plus an average reduction of 16% in the region’s commodity export basket. Regional exports to the US (-7.1%) and the European Union (-8.9%) are also expected to decrease to a lesser extent. Mexico is the country most exposed to changes in supply and demand conditions in the US, especially in the manufacturing sector. Costa Rica is also highly exposed to economic conditions in the US, as about 10% of its GDP depends on the United States supply and demand. The countries most exposed to changes in supply and demand conditions in the European Union are Chile, Mexico, and Brazil, as around 5% of their GDP depends on the service and manufacturing sectors. Impact on Poverty and Employment Given the region’s economic and social inequalities, the effects of the pandemic will disproportionally affect the poor vulnerable middle-income segments of the population. This will lead to an increase in informal employment and child labor, as the most vulnerable families will have to rely on these for survival. Poverty in the region had already increased during 2014-2018, and the effects of the pandemic are very likely to increase the poverty and extreme poverty rates. According to ECLAC estimations, if the effects of the pandemic lead to a 5% loss of income for the economically active population, the poverty rate can increase by 3.5 percentage points, while extreme poverty is expected to rise by 2.3 percentage points during 2019-2020, compared to an increase of 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points change respectively in the previous year. [caption id="attachment_5438" align="aligncenter" width="597"] Source: UN-ECLAC[/caption] People employed by micro, small or medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are a very vulnerable segment. Almost 99% of companies in the LAC region are MSMEs, and these represent the majority of companies in almost all economic sectors. The temporary shutdown measures and restrictions on economic activities will lead to a significant decrease in sales revenues, putting the survival of these companies at risk. The economic impact numerous bankruptcies and closures MSMEs will have large social cost, given that these companies accounted for 61.1% of total employment in the region in 2016. Regional Context LAC governments face significant constraints in terms of their capacity to fight the effects of the pandemic. These constraints are not necessarily new, neither have they been caused by the pandemic. Rather, the pandemic has exhibited the many deficiencies in the institutional capacity of LAC countries due to decades of development policies that were not conductive to create sustainable and resilient economies. The results of this are, to varying extents among countries, economies heavily burdened by dire fiscal spaces, and gaps in access to basic services. Fiscal Space The LAC region presents a weak fiscal situation. No country in the region can afford the increases in spending carried out by developed countries to mitigate the impacts of the crisis. On average, public debt represented 62% of the GDP in 2019, compared to 40% of GDP in 2008. The high levels of debt will limit the response capacities of countries, and these will greatly vary as the levels of debt are very different between them. In 2009, the region was able to respond to the international crisis with an average fiscal expansion of 3% of GDP. At the current debt levels, the response capacity today would be approximately 1.5% of GDP. [caption id="attachment_5439" align="aligncenter" width="567"] Source: IADB & IMF[/caption] Moreover, the region’s capacity to access financing has also been affected by the crisis. According to data from the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), the cost of borrowing in for LAC countries doubled between January and March 2020. The region pays on average 700 basis points for external credit, but this varies between countries. Countries like Brazil and Chile can still access international credit at higher but “reasonable” rates, while for countries like Argentina and Costa Rica, the costs are so high that this is no longer a viable option. [caption id="attachment_5440" align="aligncenter" width="550"] Source: IADB with data from IMF and Bloomberg[/caption] Supporting Infrastructure: Internet, Healthcare & Social security Digital technologies have enabled a transition to work-from-home and study/learning-from home, reducing the impact on some economic activities and education. Although more than 67% of LAC’s population had access to internet in 2019, there are big differences in terms of access between countries. While +80% of the population has access to internet in countries like Bermuda, Aruba and Chile, this percentage drops below 50% in Peru and as low as 12% in Haiti. This is without considering the sub-national disparities between rural and urban populations, as well as income segments within each country, regarding access to internet. [caption id="attachment_5442" align="aligncenter" width="1043"] Source: World Bank[/caption] As for health services, the capacity of health systems in the region varies greatly between countries. The region’s government spending in health was 2.2% of GDP in 2018, far below the 6% of GDP recommended by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). In 2016, out-of-pocket health expenditure by households as a proportion of total current health expenditure in Latin America and the Caribbean (37.6%) was more than double that of the European Union (15.7%), and participation in health insurance plans for employed people aged 15 years and older was only 57.3%. [caption id="attachment_5445" align="aligncenter" width="334"] Source: World Bank[/caption] The LAC region has a serious deficit in hospital beds, including those in in- tensive care units (ICUs), and medical personnel (doctors, nurses, and others). In OECD countries, there are 3.5 doctors and 9.8 nurses per 1,000 inhabitants, whereas the comparable figures for LAC countries are 1.8 doctors and 4.4 nurses. Source: UN-ECLAC Statistics Moreover, health services in the region tend to be inadequate and not entirely accessible. In line with the low spending on healthcare, public services tend to be of varying quality, and private healthcare services are only available for those who can afford them. Furthermore, specialized healthcare services and physicians are mostly concentrated in key urban centers, making their access and affordability challenging for the low-income segments of the population. Social protection systems in LAC will also face several issues, especially for countries with limited fiscal space. While these were already inadequate before the crisis, social protection systems will face several issues affecting their capacity to respond to the pandemic. The region faces high rates of employment informality, with a regional average of more than 50% in 2017, limiting the access to social protection services and benefits. Only a few countries in the region have unemployment benefits. In 2019, only 6 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay) had employment insurance for formal sector workers. Contributory social protection systems will face very high demands of sick leave benefits by workers, and the tax funded non-contributory social protection programs, which are normally designed to support the ported segments of the population, will need to be extended to cover low income families at risk of falling into poverty. Policy recommendations The pandemic has put countries in a situation on which they face 2 simultaneous crises: a health crisis, and an economic crisis. Given the limited fiscal space and costly access to finance for some countries in the LAC region., the response options are very limited. The link between the health and pandemic impacts will have governments juggle between different key objectives. In the short term, the implementation of lockdowns, people movement restrictions and other social distancing measures are the most effective ways to fight the spread of the virus and control its mortality. However, general lockdowns also increase unemployment, declines in salaries, and increases poverty. Governments do not have the fiscal resources to compensate the sectors affected by the pandemic. Therefore, governments must prioritize resource allocation. Naturally, allocating resources to one sector will reduce the resources available for another. The social context of the region will augment this tension. For instance, many households in the region were already poor before the pandemic, and any decrease in their income will put their survival at risk. On the other hand, households in the vulnerable middle class proportionally suffered the steepest decline on their incomes, so it will not be easy to balance the support given to both segments. At the same time, governments must balance between supporting the sectors most affected by the pandemic (hotels, restaurants, etc.) and the workers of the many other sectors that will also be affected. Typical support measures, such as cash transfers, will not be sustainable for extended periods of time, even in countries with greater fiscal resources. The current social support programs implemented by some countries in the region have limitations due to their design. These typically target segments classified withing structural poverty and are not designed to target vulnerable groups that are going through the transitory poverty caused by the pandemic. While the specific measures will vary per country, according to their available resources, there are several recommendations that can be followed to tackle both crises.: A commensurate fiscal stimulus is needed to support health services and protect incomes and jobs. Countries must guarantee the supply of essential goods, such as medicines, medical equipment, food and energy, as well as universal access to testing and health care services. Health spending must be a priority, especially in countries with limited budgets. During the confinement period, resources must be focused on increasing the response capacity of the health system and expanding testing capacity. Mass targeted testing could be used to control infection rates among vulnerable populations. Focus mass testing efforts in targeted regions and hotpots on which the most vulnerable populations (i.e. those more pressed to go back to work, those most vulnerable or exposed to the virus) are concentrated. Serological tests would be the most efficient for this testing method on the LAC region, given that they are cheaper and do not require complicated technology. Social protection systems need to be strengthened to support vulnerable populations. Countries need to expand non-contributory programs, such as direct cash transfers, unemployment, underemployment, and self-employment benefits aimed at vulnerable population segments. Leverage and adjust already existing programs. Some countries in the region already had cash transfer programs in place before the crisis, which could be expanded and adjusted with new targeting instruments to cover poor and vulnerable population segments. Using alternative sources of data to identify vulnerable households, such as electricity consumption, application of employment benefits, or data from recent household censuses, can be used to identify priority targets. Housing crisis and massive business closures can be avoided by enabling mortgage and rent payment deferrals. Government should also consider deferring payments of basic services such as of water, electricity, and internet bills for low-income people for the duration of the pandemic. Central banks must ensure firms’ liquidity to ensure their operations can be carried out and the stability of the financial system. Central banks should intervene directly to provide the liquidity needed by the private sector. Prevent the collapse of the financial system by extending guarantees and credits to the banking sectors and other businesses whose closure would put financial stability at risk. While this measure will affect resources available for other interventions, it will benefit companies and economic sectors not benefited directly by other policies. Avoid the bankruptcy of businesses and minimize the decline in formal employment. Governments can extend loans and guarantees to businesses to provide liquidity. Temporarily suspend (moratorium) or reduce payments of taxes, mandatory contributions (except health insurance) and other regulations that increase the cost of production. Make the necessary legislative reforms to allow companies to temporarily reduce employment costs without permanent layoffs, such as temporary reduction of working hours and salaries. Immediate support should be provided to workers in MSMEs, low-income workers and those in the informal sector. International cooperation and multilateral organizations should design new technical and financial instruments to support countries facing fiscal pressures. They should also consider offering low-interest loans and debt relief and deferrals to open fiscal space. Multilateral institutions can go beyond financial support and provide technical assistance, by leveraging their areas of expertise and support networks, to help countries drat their response plans and their sequencing over time, and offer support in cross-cutting areas, such as big data and artificial intelligence to facilitate tracing, among other areas. Lift the sanctions on countries that are subject to them so they can have access to food, medical assistance and supplies, and COVID-19 tests. Ensure coordinated management of the response to the crisis. It is imperative that governments create high-level coordination mechanisms, especially given the multi-level government system in some countries, to establish and monitor goals and timeframes, allocate resources, and organize communication about the crisis. Ensure continuous and transparent communication with the general population, private sector, minorities, especially regarding the efficient and effective use of resources to fight the pandemic, to ensure public support and collaboration in the different measures. Conclusions While countries are already fighting the pandemic with using some and other policy measures, no response will be perfect. Governments will most likely have to implement and sustain multiple measures at a given time, by leveraging their available resources, and implement adjustments based on the results over time. The crisis was certainly unpredictable, but as mentioned before, it has exhibited the many deficiencies in the economic and social systems developed by Latin American countries in previous decades. While countries must focus on fighting the pandemic today, once the crisis is over (hopefully soon), countries must look back to the past and rethink their development models to re-commence addressing the challenges that they have been dragging for decades, such as high levels of informality, poverty, untransparent fiscal management, access of basic services and build resilient and sustainable economies for the future. Jesus Cazares - Senior Research Associate Sources: IADB https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/2020_Latin_American_and_Caribbean_Macroeconomic_Report_Policies_to_Fight_the_Pandemic.pdf IADB https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Public-Policy-to-Tackle-Covid-19-Recommendations-for--Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.pdf UN-ECLAC https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/45351/1/S2000263_en.pdf UN-ECLAC https://estadisticas.cepal.org/cepalstat/web_cepalstat/estadisticasIndicadores.asp?idioma=i IMF June 2020 Economic Outlook: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020 IMF October 2020 Economic Outlook: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 World Bank https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx
With the long-term implications of the global coronavirus pandemic, crisis management is being put under the spotlight on all levels, from households to companies, different institutions, and governments. Amid the crisis, governments began to mobilize their economies on several fronts including closure, economic, and healthcare policies; to mitigate the negative impacts of the pandemic. Zooming in on businesses, we’ve seen through the news, reports, and most importantly regulations how they’ve been impacted differently based on their sectors, as well as size; but can their type of ownership play a role in the effects of COVID-19 on businesses? In this blog we’ll be looking at family vs non-family-owned businesses, shedding light on the differentiating factors at the core of this split that echoes in times of crisis management, allowing us to underline the contrasting coping measures. Interestingly, family-owned businesses have received less media coverage than non-family; while according to the Family Firm Institute, family businesses account for 2/3 of all businesses across countries, generating between 70-90% of global GDP and creating 50-80% of the jobs around the world. Organizational differences between family and non-family businesses First and foremost, the significant and particular influence of family governance represents a distinctive difference between family-owned and non-family businesses that should be considered. Ownership among those families is strongly related to a psychological experience, which results from years of investing in the business’ governance. By integrating the business life into their families, the fate of the employees, customers, and surrounding communities becomes linked to its success. Family governance is associated with a series of values, among which are collectivism, altruism, trust, identification, loyalty, and commitment. Another distinguishing factor between both ownership models is that more often than not family owners admit having a business purpose related to the pursuit of non-financial goals; versus non-family owners who measure their organization’s success through its financial performance. The latter supports another core value at the heart of family businesses which is the valued labor relations. To illustrate this better, in the US, you can find many family businesses with greater employee benefits, than big non-family businesses or unions. For example, the In-N-Out Burger chain offers its part- and full-time employees, benefits that include the 401(k) plan of retirement, paid vacations, dental and vision coverage; which is a rare package in the fast-food industry. Employees are often treated like family and find the needed support on personal matters such as family members’ medical bills or funeral expenses. With this emotional attachment to the firm, families tend to have an observation period towards the long-term future more often than the short-term; showing a commitment to the family legacy and its core values. The main objective is to then secure the survival of the firm and succeeding in the uninterrupted family succession project. This approach is frequently referred to as the zoom in/zoom out approach which focuses on iterating between two parallel time perspectives. Firstly, the zoom-out perspective consisting of 10 to 12 years; then the zoom in perspective where the scope is limited to 6 to 12 months. In adopting this approach, families believe that by getting both horizons right, everything else in between will fall in its place. Conversely, the traditional non-family approach usually adopted is the strategic 5-year planning; which is a time frame that belongs to the period in-between when relating it to the zoom-in/zoom-out strategy. Now that we’ve seen some core differences, how is family vs non-family crisis management affected based on the different business models? How family-owned businesses are managing the COVID-19 crisis effectively? Based on Harvard Business Review’s definition, crisis management is the process of adapting oversight of the enterprise under conditions of extreme uncertainty in order to ensure that all stakeholders are aligned around the firm’s long-term vision, values, expected financial outcomes, and risk management measures. With the COVID-19 pandemic, few studies, mostly qualitative, have been conducted surveying European family businesses, different in size and sectors to evaluate their coping mechanism vis-à-vis the current crisis. All surveyed family-owned companies underlined the extent to which the families are prioritizing governance as a necessary service to get them through this period. In fact, maintaining the solidarity and commitment of family members is as important as the continuity of the business. The latter is as effective as proactive crisis management and effective leadership. Family businesses’ crisis management is centered around 5 main factors that are: safeguarding liquidity, operations, communication, business models, and organizational culture. Under a crisis, maintaining an adequate level of liquidity is one of the main stressors families have to manage, on one side; while the pursuit of their business operation becomes more critical than any other time. To begin with the importance of liquidity, some of the favored measures were reducing profits, including executive compensations and dividends, instead of laying off their employees. Secondly, in regards of safeguarding their operations, some of the measures taken by families were reduced social contacts, closing meeting rooms, cafeteria and spreading awareness amongst their employees. Layoffs were hardly mentioned by the family owners as a measure taken at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. In fact, families commonly involve employees in finding alternatives that would reduce the firms fixed costs. The third important factor that is crucial in crisis management is safeguarding the communication with employees, customers, and suppliers, even with social distancing. Studies have shown that family-owned employees have mainly 2 fears: one being the consequences which COVID-19 can have on their friends/families and the second being the inevitable economic impact on the firm, as they fear losing their jobs. Family members, then, dealt with the latter through extensive and proactive communication, for example, a German manufacturing company and an Austrian services company communicated their 700 and 15 employees, respectively via WhatsApp messages; while other European companies relied on FAQs on their websites, communication through email, blogs/podcasts, service hotlines or daily newsletters by their CEO written personally to their employees. On the other hand, the biggest challenge when it came to customers, was keeping a personal communication during a time where digital channels are the only ones that can be used. However, it is worth noting that with COVID-19 the general acceptance of digitization has increased, even among late adopting customers. The fourth factor revolves around the firm’s business models that are challenged in times of crisis like COVID-19, at different levels based on the sector of activity. Some family owners found it more suitable to adapt within the same business model; while others found it unavoidable to consider new ones. For example, a family business in hospitality has lost over 80% of its revenue streams but found an opportunity in the increasing demand for toilet paper and used their unoccupied spaces to sell them and generate revenue. Another case of a clothing company where mask production presented itself as an opportunity and production was changed accordingly. Other companies digitalized their workshops and started to include only digital meetings in their standard price offering, charging an additional cost for an on-site consultation. Finally, in family-run businesses, core values remain intact supporting the organizational resilience by yielding both, stability and direction during times of high uncertainty and volatility; which brings us to the last factor of crisis management that is culture. The pandemic has been creating a strong feeling of solidarity among the different stakeholders including employees and suppliers driven by the idea of facing the crisis together. For instance, many family firms have underlined the manifestation of employees’ commitment seen through an increase in motivation, teamwork, and cohesion. In addition to the latter, an increased acceptance towards digitization has been shown among the older employees, as well as others, such as cooks in restaurants who still took orders by hand. To conclude, the differences at the core of the family-owned businesses, especially when it comes to the owners’ emotional attachment to the firm, as well as the non-financial goals are what stem different reactions and crisis management approaches than non-family owners of companies. We can see through this example the importance of crisis management and how it extends to the core values and culture an entity holds. Farida Rehab - Business Analyst Sources: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/r7-12011_long-term-goals-meet-short-term-drive-family-business-survey2019/DI_Long-term-goals-meet-short-term-drive.pdf https://www.familybusinessmagazine.com/opinion-family-business-and-coronavirus-fears https://hbr.org/2020/05/what-family-businesses-need-to-adapt-to-a-crisis https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJEBR-04-2020-0214/full/pdf?title=the-economics-of-covid-19-initial-empirical-evidence-on-how-family-firms-in-five-european-countries-cope-with-the-corona-crisis https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-658-16169-9.pdf https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/oxford-answers/covid-19-call-action-family-business https://www.businessinsider.com/in-n-out-employee-pay-2018-1
ight months after recording its first Covid-19 case, the Nigerian economy has faced unprecedented challenges, navigating through the impacts with resilience and adaptability. As of October 26, 2020, there have been 62,111 confirmed cases and 1,132 deaths in Nigeria. (1,295,541 confirmed cases and 29,191 deaths in all of Africa). Back in March, health policy experts expressed serious concerns on whether African countries could limit the spread of the highly infectious coronavirus. One of the epidemiological models developed in March projected that by the end 2020, there would be an estimated 123 million infections and over 300,000 deaths on the African continent, in a best-case scenario. (1.2 billion infections and 3.3 million deaths in a worst-case scenario). “A mix of socio-ecological factors such as low population density and mobility, hot and humid climate, lower age group, interacting to accentuate their individual effects”, have so far contributed to the relatively low level of infections and deaths recorded in Africa, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Yet, as countries across the continent have eased lockdown restrictions which were crucial in limiting the spread of the coronavirus, experts have warned that African countries are not completely out of the woods, and must be vigilant to make sure that a second wave of infections does not overwhelm the continent’s weak healthcare systems. So far, while Nigeria has avoided a public health crisis, on the economic front, the pandemic has disrupted lives and caused economic insecurity and hardship for households, affected business activities, and severely impacted the government’s finances. The five charts below illustrate the economic impact of the pandemic. Impact on Livelihoods As the country resorted to a lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus, the resulting slowdown in economic activities has taken a hard toll on Nigerian households. Earlier this year, due to restrictions on movement and travel, many of the country’s mostly informal 41.5 million Micro Enterprises (96% of all businesses in the country) which account for more than 80% of total employment, had to either close or scale back operations. The charts below show the impact of the pandemic on employment and income. [caption id="attachment_5400" align="aligncenter" width="589"] Households reporting shocks of job losses[/caption] Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey Round 3: July 2020; Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) Integrated Surveys on Agriculture: General Household Survey Panel 2010/2011, 2012/3013, 2015/2016 and 2018/2019. Note: Round 3 of the Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 was conducted between July 2 and July 16, 2020. 1,950 households from the baseline survey (Round 1) were contacted and 1,820 households, fully interviewed. According to the NBS, the data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under-coverage. [caption id="attachment_5401" align="aligncenter" width="583"] Change in income by source, compared to August 2019 (% of households and source of income)1[/caption] Numbers do not add up to 100% Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey Round 4: August 2020. Note: Round 4 of the Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 was conducted in August 2020. 1,881 households from the baseline (Round 1) were contacted and 1,789 households, fully interviewed. According to the NBS, the data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under-coverage. Food Insecurity Since the pandemic began, the rates of moderate or severe food insecurity among Nigerian households have increased significantly. For most households, reduced incomes due to business closures and job losses, has coincided with an increase in food prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines food insecurity as a situation that exists when people lack regular access to enough safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development and active and healthy life. This may be due to the unavailability of food and/or lack of resources to obtain food. Severe food insecurity is akin to hunger and defined as when people have run out of food and gone an entire day without eating at times during the year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) August 2020 Covid-19 impact monitoring report, 68% of Nigerian households experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in August, down from 76.8% in June and almost double the rate of 37% measured in the NBS Jan/Feb 2019 General Household Panel (GHS) post-harvest survey. The charts below show that almost all households in the country have experienced the shock of the increase in food prices and reveals the disturbing rate of severe food insecurity experienced by households since the pandemic started. [caption id="attachment_5402" align="aligncenter" width="573"] Households experiencing shock of increase in price of major food items consumed[/caption] Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey Round 3: July 2020; Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) Integrated Surveys on Agriculture: General Household Survey Panel 2010/2011, 2012/3013, 2015/2016 and 2018/2019. Note: Round 3 of the Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 was conducted between July 2 and July 16, 2020. 1,950 households from the baseline survey (Round 1) were contacted and 1,820 households, fully interviewed. According to the NBS, the data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under-coverage. [caption id="attachment_5403" align="aligncenter" width="582"] Households Food Insecurity Experience[/caption] Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey Round 4: August 2020; Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) Integrated Surveys on Agriculture: General Household Survey Panel 2018/2019. Note: Round 4 of the Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 was conducted in August 2020. 1,881 households from the baseline (Round 1) were contacted and 1,789 households, fully interviewed. According to the NBS, the data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non-response and under-coverage. The Federal Government of Nigeria’s (FGN) Revenue Problem have worsened The FGN’s finances has been hit with a double whammy of Covid-19 and low oil prices. The record crash in oil prices and the global spread of the coronavirus earlier this year prompted a downward review of the FGN’s overly ambitious revenue targets for 2020, which will see its fiscal deficit widen further. In its May 2020 Economic report, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) noted: “If the current COVID-19-induced restrictions persists, and oil prices remain low, government revenue is likely to further decline. However, recurrent expenditure is projected to continue to rise, considering the countercyclical fiscal policy measures needed to sustain the economy. Consequently, the overall fiscal balance is expected to deteriorate further, while the Federal Government resorts to new borrowings to finance its increasing obligations.” The Country’s Ministry of Finance echoed a similar message as from the CBN expressing worry about the state of the FGN’s finances noting that “The projected Debt Service/Revenue ratio at 47% (actual for 2019 was 58%) raises some concern about the sustainability of FGN debt. However, it is more indicative that the country is faced with a serious revenue problem rather than a classic debt problem. Efforts must therefore be geared towards tackling the revenue problem so it does not degenerate to a real debt sustainability issue.” The chart below illustrates an increasingly worrying revenue problem for the FGN and shows total recurrent debt expenditure taking up a large chunk of total revenue inflows. [caption id="attachment_5404" align="aligncenter" width="588"] FGN revenue inflows and recurrent dept expenditure[/caption] Source: Budget Office of the Federation, Federal Ministry of Finance. Note: Recurrent Debt Expenditure includes debt service payments and line items such as interest on ways & means and sinking fund to retire maturing loans. Oludayo Abass - Associate Sources: “CBN Economic Report, May 2020”, Central Bank of Nigeria, https://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2020/RSD/CBN%20Monthly%20Economic%20Report,%20May%202020.pdf, accessed 27 October 2020 Covid-19 Impact Monitoring, National Bureau of Statistics, July and August 2020 “Covid-19 in Africa: protecting Lives and Economies”, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, “Covid-19 Nigeria”, Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/, accessed 27 October 2020 “Hunger and food insecurity", Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/#:~:text=A%20person%20is%20food%20insecure,an%20active%20and%20healthy%20life., accessed 27 October 2020 “Social, environmental factors seen behind Africa’s low COVID-19 cases”, World Health Organization, https://www.afro.who.int/news/social-environmental-factors-seen-behind-africas-low-covid-19-cases, accessed 27 October 2020 The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) 2021-2023, Budget Office of the Federation, Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget & National Planning Quarterly Budget Implementation Reports 2010-2020, Budget Office of the Federation, Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget & National Planning “WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard”, World Health Organization, https://covid19.who.int/, accessed 27 October 2020