On the 2nd of December 2020, a landmark decision by the Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND) highlighted a shift towards 'Cannabis Legalization in Morocco'. The UN's main drug control body removed cannabis from its list of most dangerous drugs, a move reflecting changing attitudes and setting the stage for significant legal and economic developments in Morocco. which includes heroin and synthetic opioids. Cannabis is subject to the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs and was, until December 2020, included in a category allowing it to be banned because of its "particularly dangerous properties". This amendment was based on a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO). In fact, in January 2019, the WHO unveiled six recommendations for the inclusion of cannabis in the UN drug control treaties. Among the many points made by the Organization, it has been clarified that cannabidiol (CBD), a non-toxic compound, is not subject to international controls and it has, in fact, become a prominent part of wellness therapies in recent years, sparking a billion-dollar industry. The decision made by the WHO was supported by 27 countries against 25. The decision is not in favor of a legalization of cannabis worldwide, which remains among the "highly addictive and liable to abuse substances”. However, it implies that its production and marketing remain reserved for scientific and medical use under international law. According to this decision, Morocco has raised the issue at the Government Council level. In fact, the Ministry of Interior has drafted a law on the legalization of Cannabis for medical use, in order to regulate the activities related to the cultivation of cannabis, its production, manufacture, transport, marketing, export, and import for medical and therapeutic purposes, subject to authorizations issued exclusively by a specialized agency. What is the composition of the Cannabis Plant? Cannabis is a type of hemp, which is a plant used in the yarn industry. As for its composition, the most important part of the plant is its “flower”, it is responsible for producing the so-called “Resin”, this material contains 2 molecules, “THC” and “CBD”. THC contributes to altering the consumer's state of consciousness making them “high”. It is also used for anesthesia purposes as in the case of cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. Meanwhile, CBD does not have the same purpose. In addition to its sedative effect, it works against THC to limit its properties, particularly by calming the nervous system. CBD has major therapeutic virtues, according to the U.S. National Centre for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), such as anti-inflammatory properties, it alleviates anxiety and depression, it can calm the symptoms of epilepsy, and it can even contrast certain psychotic disorders (such as schizophrenia), etc.…. Studies conducted by NCBI even suggest that at high concentrations, CBD inhibits the proliferation of tumor cells from certain cancers and that it could reduce the risk of necrosis of the arteries after a heart attack. That’s why the debate about the advantages and disadvantages of Cannabis has risen again, and some countries have realized that maybe they are missing out on the benefits of this plant and its potential for both healthcare and the economy. Cannabis, what is the potential for the Moroccan economy? Globally, according to the report released in 2019 by New Frontier Data on the global cannabis industry, the global total addressable cannabis market (regulated and illicit) is estimated at USD 344 billion in the top five regional markets: Asia ($132.9 billion), North America ($85.6 billion), Europe ($68.5 billion), Africa ($37.3 billion) and Latin America ($9.8 billion). On the other hand, the global legal marijuana market size according to a recent research study by Precedence Research was valued at USD 17.5 billion in 2019 and predicted to reach a market value around USD 65.1 billion by 2027 expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 17.8% during the period 2020 to 2027. A report has been published as a result of a study conducted in Morocco in 2003 -2004 by the United Nations. According to this report, the area dedicated to the cultivation of cannabis in Morocco was estimated at 134,000 ha in 2003 with a turnover of USD 15 billion in 2003 and 13 billion in 2004. At that time, the total Moroccan production was estimated at 98,000 tons and its conversion into resin (hashish) at about 2,760 tons, with almost half of it originating from the region surrounding Chefchaouen. However, these numbers have been reduced drastically thanks to the "cannabis-free provinces" campaign that Morocco conducted in 2007. As a matter of fact, the area cultivated for cannabis resin in Morocco amounted to 47,000 ha in 2017 for only 1,147 ha destroyed (2.4%), according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). With this area, the Kingdom would have an estimated open air production around 38,000 tons, and 760 tons from indoor production. Morocco thus, retains its position as the world's largest producer of cannabis resin with a market value of USD 9 Billion in 2017. The illegal market takes the lead over the legal one, of course. As stated above, the total global market is valued at USD 344 billion in 2019, of which only USD 17.5 billion is legal. Therefore, the illegal market is valued at USD 326.5 billion. Even if the legal market is very limited, the study by Precedence Research predicts an expansion at 17.8% CAGR and a total value of USD 65.1 Billion in 2027. Morocco will be in a prime position to exploit this legal market if more widespread legalization occurs. What would be the legal frame of Cannabis legalization? The country acknowledges that legalization should have clear rules to regulate the cultivation and production of Cannabis. In fact, last February the Ministry of Interior presented a draft law on the legalization of Cannabis for medical use which was adopted by the House of Representatives in May. The proposed law contains 56 articles, a third of which establishes clear rules to regulate this activity which will be conditioned by an authorization granted by a national agency that will be created for this specific purpose. The law covers cultivation, production, exploitation, export/import of seeds and plants, processing, transportation, marketing, and the export of final products. The authorizations would be granted only in areas indicated in a dedicated decree. They will be issued within the limits of the quantities necessary to meet the needs of medical, pharmaceutical, and industrial production. Similarly, authorization will not be granted to produce THC (tetrahydrocannabinol) which is the main molecule of cannabis whose content must not exceed a level set by a regulatory text. On top of that, it is to be specified that the applicant for authorization must be of Moroccan nationality, has the legal majority, domiciled in one of the douars (villages) of the identified provinces. He also must be a member of a cooperative that will be created for this purpose and must own the land or have permission to grow cannabis on it. Additionally, authorized producers must comply with the provisions of the specifications to be prepared by the National Agency, in coordination with the relevant government authorities. In conclusion, the legalization of Cannabis will unlock great potential for the Moroccan economy, especially since the market is estimated to reach USD 69 billion by 2027. Not to mention that many countries are currently conducting massive research regarding the uses of Cannabis in the medical field. However, the country must not rely on local market’s demand only, efforts should be oriented to exploit global markets and partner with global pharmaceutical firms to build strong exporting business models. ***Numbers are not completely reliable since the scope is illegal Sources: https://www.leconomiste.com/flash-infos/cannabis-47-000-ha-cultives-au-maroc https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/18/1806583/0/en/New-Study-Estimates-the-Global-Cannabis-Market-at-Over-340-Billion-USD.html https://encadrementcannabis.gouv.qc.ca/le-cannabis/ https://www.cbdcorner.fr/difference-cbd-thc/ https://www.leconomiste.com/article/1075528-legalisation-du-cannabis-les-details-du-projet-de-loi https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/01/2137727/0/en/Legal-Marijuana-Market-Growth-is-Expanding-over-17-8-by-2027.html http://www.apdn.ma/apdn/images/stories/file/etudes_enquettes/Morocco_survey_2004_reference.pdf https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAP5N2gPHhM&t=746s https://www.leconomiste.com/flash-infos/legalisation-du-cannabis-le-projet-de-loi-adopte-chez-les-representants https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7023045/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7693730/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6387667/
Today some countries are progressing more rapidly than others in terms of covid-19 vaccinations. In this article, we will look at the cases of Israel, the UAE, and Morocco, and how successfully they have administered their inoculation campaigns. Then we will cover the issue of vaccine access inequality, and the reasons behind the gap between various nations. Countries with the most successful and rapid vaccine rollout are the smaller ones in terms of population: Israel, UAE, etc. These countries’ advanced digitized and centralized healthcare systems allow for a quick and effective roll-out. With a Covid-19 vaccination drive that has reached more than half of the population, Israel has pulled far ahead of the rest of the world, becoming a world leader in vaccinations per capita, and in return, it supplies BioNTech/Pfizer with valuable data and information from its campaign. Israel has started to reopen its economy since the Health Ministry data showed that the two-shot regimen has reduced COVID-19 infections by 95.8% since February and that it was 98% effective in preventing fever and breathing issues and 98.9% in preventing hospitalizations and death. In the UAE, Dubai has also decided to take the risk of gradually reopening its economy on New Year’s Eve, as it relies on international tourism for nearly a third of its GDP; by the end of January, with coronavirus cases spiking, hospitals had reached their limit and cases quadrupled to almost 4,000 a day. The currently approved vaccines in the country are Sinopharm, Pfizer/BioNTech, and Sputnik V. The Emirates are one of the first countries to start vaccinations, having administered at least 11 million shots as of May 9th. Thanks to this early action, the economy of the UAE, is forecast to grow by 1.3% this year according to the IMF, after contracting 6.6% in 2020. In Morocco, the vaccination campaign started on January 28th and has benefited some 4.5 million people (fully vaccinated), making it the most advanced African country in Covid-19 vaccinations. It currently uses the British AstraZeneca and Chinese Sinopharm vaccines and intends to further diversify its supplies with the Russian vaccine Sputnik V. The Kingdom is emerging as a model country that seeks to vaccinate, free of charge, 80% of its population aged over 17, including foreign residents. On March 3rd, The World Health Organization congratulated Morocco and announced that it is among the first 10 countries that have “successfully completed the challenge of vaccination against COVID-19.” Success of the Covid-19 vaccination campaign One of the key factors of the success of the Covid-19 vaccination rollout is the population’s attitude towards it. Both the UAE and Israel have invested resources in reassuring their population that the vaccine is effective and safe. In many countries, health authorities relied on faith leaders to make sure their communities are getting their vaccines. In the UAE the Fatwa Council issued a Fatwa (Islamic ruling) allowing the Covid-19 vaccines to be used in compliance with Islamic Sharia’s objectives, and its chairman, Shaykh Abdallah bin Bayyah, was vaccinated in public. Religious leaders are also spreading the word in Israel: ultra-Orthodox media and community leaders are taking part in the vaccination campaign, as a significant minority is still resistant and suspicious of the mass vaccination campaign. In Morocco, the government has successfully managed the response to the pandemic by acting quickly and preemptively as the first cases appeared: through strict application of quarantine, acquisition of masks, and all the necessary PPE, early involvement in vaccination, and securing multiple doses of the vaccine. This effort has reduced the number of fatalities per day, from 92 deaths in November to only 5 in April. How fair and equitable is the vaccine distribution plan? So far, the richest countries have been prioritizing their own population and have been able to buy far more doses than the poorest ones: high-income countries hold a confirmed 4.2 billion doses, while low-middle income nations only hold 670 million. In Africa, the delay appears to be playing out across the continent, which raised doubts about the effectiveness of political leadership. The delayed arrival of doses in some African nations could regrettably add more hospitalizations and deaths and increases the risk of multiplication of dangerous variants. Led by the WHO with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations CEPI and Global Vaccine Alliance GAVI, the Covax initiative is aiming to focus on the 92 poorest countries: more than 49 million vaccine doses have been delivered through Covax so far. The World Health Organization approved the AstraZeneca vaccine to be rolled out globally through the Covax program and Ghana became the first to receive the Covid-19 vaccines in February. A country with no vaccination plans: Tanzania For months in 2020 the Tanzanian government, then led by the late John Magafuli, has insisted the country was "Covid-19 free". And without providing any evidence, the government also expressed doubt about the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines and instead promoted unfounded remedies like steam inhalation and herbal medicines, neither of which have been approved by the WHO. The health minister even went so far as to announce that the country “has no plans in place to accept COVID-19 vaccines”. The deceased President opted to maintain strict control over public discussions of Covid-19 issuing a directive that only himself, Dr. Gwajima, and three other top officials could give information about Covid-19 in the country. But in an unusual move, some leaders of the Catholic church broke their silence and warned the public to observe health measures to prevent the spread of the virus. WHO's Africa director Dr. Matshidiso Moeti said that the vaccines work and that he encourages the Tanzanian government to prepare a Covid-19 vaccination campaign, adding that the WHO is ready to support them. As the country has not published any data on the virus for months, it is difficult to say how well Tanzania’s approach has worked; the last time the country published data on its Covid-19 numbers was 29 April 2020, when it reported only 509 cases. Why are such disparities allowed? Since Covid-19 vaccines are not a public good, the market decides who gets it first. Wealthy countries are racing to have their population vaccinated this year, but in most developing and poor countries, the vaccine remains unavailable, undermining the efforts for global immunization. The choices made by the wealthiest nations will determine which future takes hold: a global community unified to bring the virus under control, or a world divided between the wealthy and immunized and the vulnerable and poor. Boutaina Benaboud Sources: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/11/israeli-real-world-data-on-pfizer-vaccine-shows-high-covid-protection https://covid19.ncema.gov.ae/en/page/about-the-vaccine https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general?utm_source=go.gov.il&utm_medium=referral https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/covid-vaccine-uae-14742-doses-administered-in-24-hours https://apnews.com/article/religion-dubai-united-arab-emirates-middle-east-coronavirus-pandemic-a0046418311fd0ec2a42aaeb9e503bb6 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARE https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/21/israel-reopens-bits-of-its-economy-as-vaccinated-people-nears-50 https://www.wsj.com/articles/israels-leaders-clash-with-ultraorthodox-over-lockdowns-vaccines-11612199623 https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/uae-covid-19-vaccine-fatwa-council-chief-gets-the-jab https://www.bbc.com/news/world-55795297 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55900680#:~:text=Coronavirus%20in%20Tanzania%3A%20The%20country%20that's%20rejecting%20the%20vaccine,-6%20February&text=For%20months%20Tanzania's%20government%20has,of%20having%20had%20the%20disease. https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/ https://twitter.com/omsmaroc?lang=en https://www.africanews.com/2021/03/09/morocco-vaccinates-more-than-four-million-people-against-covid-19// https://www.medias24.com/la-campagne-de-vaccination-anti-covid-demarre-au-debut-de-la-semaine-prochaine-15721.html https://www.mapnews.ma/en/actualites/social/covid-19-morocco-champion-vaccination-french-media https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/health/coronavirus-uae-administers-10-million-vaccine-doses-1.1209141
According to a new report by Novartis Foundation and Microsoft, investment in data and artificial intelligence (AI) will be a key tool for improving health systems during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Released on September 9, 2020, the report "Reimagining Global Health through Artificial Intelligence: The Roadmap to AI Maturity"[1] concludes that low-income countries may soon outperform high-income states in the adoption of AI-based health technologies. It also points out that African countries could be the fastest adopters of AI-based health technologies due to the lack of existing systems. However, it also warned that these countries stand to lose the most if governments don’t seize this opportunity and invest more in AI. According to the 2020 Partech report, the health technology sector attracted 189 million dollars to Africa during 2019 which is equivalent to 9.3% of the total amount allocated, all sectors combined, to startups operating in Africa. This amount represents a growth of +969% compared to 2018. Hence, the health technology sector is not only growing but also mobilizes significant financial capital. Strengths driving AI adoption in Africa Technologies such as mobile trading platforms, e-banking, e-commerce and even Blockchain applications have often been adopted faster and more comprehensively in low and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, and health technologies are likely to follow the same trend, the report said. In addition, a major advantage for low-income countries is their exemption from the difficulties now faced by rich countries. Rich countries already have different types of data hosted by systems that are not always able to communicate, whereas they need to be interoperable[2] to be "effectively" used for AI. The opportunity therefore lies in the fact that low-income countries, not yet having these different systems, can once and for all develop a single ecosystem so that all data systems have the same structure and are interoperable. However, there are several constraints and challenges that must be addressed by the African continent in order to take advantage of the emergence of the digital in general and AI in particular in the health system. Pain points hindering AI adoption in Africa The lack of medical personnel is the primary challenge facing the African continent. Currently, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 12% of the world's population but faces 25% of the world's disease burden, while housing only 3% of the world's health workers. This is expected to worsen with a projected global shortage of health workers estimated at 18 million by 2030. In addition, the lack of data storage infrastructure available to health facilities represents a barrier to the rapid adoption of AI in the health sector. Thus, African governments need to put in place policies that promote data acquisition readiness and investment in AI development infrastructure such as data centers. AI as a driver for rebuilding health systems Many African countries are poorly prepared to deal with a new emerging disease such as Covid-19, in addition to the current burden of infectious diseases and the ever-increasing tide of chronic diseases. AI is therefore coming to rethink archaic health systems by shifting from reactivity to proactivity and then to prediction and even prevention. To successfully implement AI, a whole sustainable ecosystem must be developed to ensure equity and access to healthcare services for all. As healthcare systems rebuild during the pandemic, technological innovation must be at the heart of the agenda. Below are examples of companies leveraging the power of AI in the health sector across several African countries. This shows that the continent is building and developing a strong AI startup ecosystem for the healthcare sector. Nigeria: Nigerian startup Aajoh uses artificial intelligence to help individuals that send a list of their symptoms via text, audio and photographs, to diagnose their medical condition. The business was launched in 2015 and allows personalized medical diagnosis and treatment through predictive analytics. Founded in 2012, Ubenwa developed an AI app that analyses a baby’s cry to give warning signs of asphyxia, which is the third leading killer of infants worldwide. This machine learning tool provides instant diagnosis of birth asphyxia based on 1,400 pre-recorded baby cries that are analyzed by looking at factors such as amplitude and frequency pattern. Ghana: Founded in 2016, Minohealth introduced an innovative Medical Health System to democratize duality healthcare with AI for medical diagnostics, Cloud Medical Records system for hospitals, health ministries and patients, and big data analytics for health. Kenya: AfyaRekod is a digital health data platform that focuses on the patient and allows health facilities to capture, store, have real-time access and mobility of the patients’ health data. Developed as a patient driven platform, the patient maintains the sovereign right of ownership to their health data. The platform leverage AI and various blockchain modules to make insightful data driven decisions that allows doctors to provide better healthcare for patients. Rwanda: Though headquartered in California, Zipline operates in Africa leveraging drowns in order to to deliver blood to transfusion centres in remote areas. The team are delivering fresh blood and medicines to hard-to-reach rural areas across Rwanda daily. Zambia: Founded in 2017, Dawa Clinic is an Artificial Intelligence-based web-mobile platform which is aimed at facilitating remote healthcare service for pregnant women and early mothers. The App works with a self-monitoring kit that empowers mothers to receive remote maternal health. Through the App, mothers are able to monitor parameters like blood pressure, Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs), blood sugar levels, and other pregnancy-related complications. The information is wired remotely to a doctor for early intervention in case of any complications. Tunisia: SPIKE-X is a startup specialized in AI offering intelligent software packages that provide decision support solutions allowing to better understand, predict and influence human decision making of large groups and populations. SPIKE-X is a leader in innovative quality healthcare, e-Health and m-Health, and, Intelligent Security such as Intrusion Detection System, Access Control, Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) and Retail Analytics. For the healthcare sector, the company’s solutions help in Breast Cancer Detection, Skin Cancer Detection and Alzheimer Disease Classification. Examples of AI use during the COVID-19 era Rwanda: Rwanda probably has the most connected health system in Africa. The country has a virtual consultation service with over two million users, one third of the adult population. In March 2020, the Rwandan government and the private actor Babylon Health, operating in the East African country under the name babyl, entered into a ten-year partnership to give every Rwandan over the age of 12 access to digital health consultations. The consultations are paid for by the Mutuelle de Santé, the government's community health insurance scheme. The new partnership will also see the introduction of a platform for triage and verification of symptoms, powered by AI. Guinea: In Conakry, Tulip Industries, a startup created by Mountaga Keïta and specializing in technological innovation, is another example. Named "Health Scan", the startup has designed this tablet able to detect the symptoms of Coronavirus. The device is equipped with a thermal camera and sensors that measure a patient's body temperature, blood oxygen level and heart rate. According to the designer, Health Scan helps to better target the hottest part of the body and to obtain more reliable data than the thermo flashes commonly used on the forehead. This information is stored in a local database and artificial intelligence comes in to federate this information and try to draw inferences to help doctors better determine if the patient needs respiratory assistance upon arrival at a health center. Kenya: Launched in 2017, Tambua Health arms medical practitioners with an app that helps doctors and health practices spend less time and money diagnosing and treating cardiopulmonary diseases using lung and heart sounds analysis through machine learning. During the covid-19 pandemic, Tambua Health invents a patent-pending technology called T-sense. T-sense generates images of lungs by detecting the vibration of sound as air moves in and out of the lungs. It is able to do this by using sensor arrays placed on the back of the patient. With these sensors, T-sense can generate dynamic images of the lung like this using sound imaging. Using spatial distribution algorithms that have been trained from the company's proprietary database of lung sound images, Tambua's T-sense can detect healthy and unhealthy lungs with a high degree of accuracy. Egypt: Rology is a startup of the AUC Venture Lab (V-Lab), Egypt’s first university-based accelerator. Established in 2017, it is an on-demand teleradiology platform solving the problem of radiologist shortages and high latency in medical reports through artificial intelligence by remotely and instantly matching cases from hospitals with the optimum radiologist. Rology operations follow three main steps: upload, match and report. the hospital uploads the patient’s medical images onto the system. Based on the first auto analysis, Rology then matches the scan with the optimal radiologist, depending on availability and subspecialty. Afterward, the radiologist writes the final diagnostic report and sends it back to the hospital through a quality control process. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Rology helped solving the problem of shortage of radiologists, by proposing a diagnosis of Covid-19. In short, artificial intelligence will help bridge the gap in Africa's health systems. However, its use cannot substitute for the development of effective health infrastructures and the setting up of strict systems and protocols for examination and monitoring. It is also important to keep in mind that secure and privacy-friendly data governance must be part of ensuring a sustainable AI-based infrastructure. Finally, the countries that will fare best will be those that combine a good level of medical infrastructure with innovative technological solutions ! [1] The report "Reimagining Global Health through Artificial Intelligence: The Roadmap to AI Maturity" was authored by the Commission on Digital and AI in Health, created in 2010 by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and UNESCO to expand broadband access to accelerate progress towards national and international development goals, and jointly led by the Novartis Foundation and Microsoft. [2] Data interoperability is the ability of systems and services that create, exchange and consume data to have clear, shared expectations for the contents, context and meaning of that data. Safae Laghmari - Senior Research Analyst Sources: https://www.scidev.net/afrique-sub-saharienne/technologie/actualites/l-intelligence-artificielle-dans-le-secteur-de-la-sante-en-afrique-28092020.html http://french.peopledaily.com.cn/Afrique/n3/2020/0914/c96852-9760056.html https://www.broadbandcommission.org/Documents/working-groups/AIinHealth_Report.pdf https://www.agenceecofin.com/homepage/0909-80001-l-adoption-des-technologies-dans-la-sante-pourrait-aider-les-pays-pauvres-a-depasser-les-riches-dans-lacces-aux-soins https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202009/10/WS5f5a1ebba310f55b25a81cdd.html https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/20200915-l-intelligence-artificielle-service-la-m%C3%A9decine-en-afrique https://www.agenceecofin.com/entreprendre/1609-80257-guinee-mountaga-keita-a-concu-une-tablette-capable-de-detecter-les-symptomes-de-la-covid-19 https://camerounactuel.com/sante-a-base-de-lintelligence-artificielle-une-chance-pour-les-pays-a-faible-revenu/ https://cio-mag.com/e-sante-guinee-tulip-industry-des-ordinateurs-debout-adaptes-a-lafrique/ https://capecameroun.org/la-tech-africaine-se-mobilise-contre-le-covid-19/ https://auctoday.com/2020/03/31/roll-out-the-radiologists/ https://www.lepoint.fr/afrique/covid-19-l-afrique-sur-la-carte-mondiale-de-l-innovation-23-04-2020-2372639_3826.php https://www.mei.edu/publications/rethinking-egypts-economy https://www.alliance4ai.org/companies/https://clevva.com/press-release/6-artificial-intelligence-startups-africa-look/ https://medium.com/alliance4ai/ai-generation-learnings-from-alliance4ais-first-100-startups-in-africa-acfba0f753d1 https://www.distrelec.de/current/en/engineering/companies-robotics-ai-make-lives-better-africa/ https://www.leconomiste.com/article/1063657-technologies-de-la-sante-le-maroc-leader-et-futur-hub-en-afrique https://www.nydc.gov.zm/tafadzwa-kalisto-munzwa-dawa-clinic-co-founder/
Exploring the COVID-19 testing strategies in Italy reveals Lombardy and Veneto, the first two regions hit by the virus, embarked on divergent paths in managing the pandemic. Lombardy became unfortunately famous for being the most-hit region in Italy, by both numbers of infections and deaths. Veneto instead, managed to contain the infection, and has now very low numbers compared to Lombardy. Both regions have allegedly good regional healthcare systems (better functioning than many other Italian regions and other European countries), so what did Veneto do that Lombardy did not? The Beginning COVID-19 cases in Italy started rising towards the end of February 2020. There were two initial epicenters of the outbreak, one in Codogno, in the province of Lodi in Lombardy, and one in Vo’, in the province of Padua in Veneto. The two towns were put into lockdown in order to contain the virus, but this did not prevent it to expand to other provinces and regions. In the last week of February cases were confirmed in neighboring regions such as Piedmont, Emilia-Romagna and soon the virus reached almost all regions in Italy from north to south. In the coming weeks, Lombardy’s cases started to soar, together with the number of people hospitalized in intensive care and the number of deaths. Ever since, up until today, Lombardy is the most hit region, by the number of infections, intensive care hospitalizations, and casualties. Veneto instead, from being one of the first two epicenters of the virus in Italy, with tens of people being infected in the first days of the epidemic, followed a very different evolution. The numbers today As of May 21, 2020, according to official government data, Lombardy has 85,775 total cumulative cases, with more than 15,600 casualties whereas Veneto has so far 19,030 total cumulative cases and about 1,800 casualties. It is clear that the two regions have very different numbers. There is however a figure for which Lombardy and Veneto have a much similar value: the number of tests carried out. As of today, Lombardy performed a total cumulative of 607.863 tests, whereas Veneto carried out 536.798. Considering that the population of Lombardy is two times that of Veneto, this means that overall, Veneto implemented a test-intensive strategy, while Lombardy did not. [caption id="attachment_5198" align="aligncenter" width="532"] Figure 1 Cumulative positive cases in Lombardy and Veneto, MoH Data, My Elaboration[/caption] Testing Strategies Lombardy As the number of cases began to soar and hospitals’ ICU beds started reaching capacity, the president of the Region, Attilio Fontana, decided to test only people with serious symptoms due to the limited diagnostic capacity of the region. This was backed by the recommendations published by the Ministry of Health on March 9, which read “people with symptoms should be tested”. Up until late April, Lombardy denied testing to people who requested it, unless they had significant symptoms. GP were instructed to do a triage over the phone and if the patient did not have a respiratory crisis or symptoms that would require hospitalization, the doctor would just suggest they’d keep them informed on the evolution of the symptoms. In addition to this, articles from trustworthy newspapers, have recently stated that Lombardy did not test people with symptoms (even serious ones), thus implying that Lombardy’s authorities have been concealing the truth and that they have not actually followed the Ministry of Health guidelines. Veneto When the first patient affected by Covid-19 was identified in Vo’ on February 23, the region supported the proposal of a group of professors and researchers from the University of Padua, to carry out an epidemiological study on the entire population of Vo', testing everyone in the town. The results obtained provided a fundamental input in the medical research on the nature and ways of spreading of the virus, since the study was carried out on a population with statistically significant size. But most importantly, this study produced some crucial information to design a containment strategy more suited to the nature of this new virus. Among the results obtained, the study showed a very high share (45-50 percent) of asymptomatic infected people able to transmit the virus. With this result in mind, Veneto developed the so-called "active surveillance" strategy. The important aspect of this strategy is the planning of the tests: at the first appearance of symptoms (even mild) the patient is tested (together with the people living with her/him). Then a reconstruction of all the people that the patient came in contact with during the previous days is put together, and once these people are identified, they are also tested. Each time a new positive case is found, the procedure is repeated. In this way Veneto proceeds by concentric circles to identify the potential carriers of the virus- even if asymptomatic- with a higher probability. [caption id="attachment_5199" align="aligncenter" width="621"] Figure 2: COVID tests carried out by region from February 24 to May 14 (per 100,000 people). Data from MoH, my elaboration.[/caption] Conclusions Veneto: A winning Strategy: The two regions opted for two opposite testing strategy: Lombardy tested only the symptomatic patients (with already advanced symptoms), while Veneto proceeded to test symptomatic AND asymptomatic people, by mapping the contacts of the infected individuals. Veneto seems to have followed an approach more similar to Germany and South Korea. These are two countries that have managed to limit both the number of new cases and deaths, by recognizing the importance of testing asymptomatic patients. Scientific opinion leveraged: While Lombardy (allegedly) followed the guidelines of the Ministry of Health, based on the WHO recommendations, the region of Veneto, from the very beginning of the crisis, resorted to a team of scientists and epidemiologists to build a strategy that would best suit the situation. Does this mean that the MoH recommendations are flawed? Or being recommendations, they should be contextualized and tweaked based on the specific needs and capabilities of each region? Public debate and Lombardy’s defense: In the last few weeks a public debate started in Italy on whether Lombardy should be held accountable for the mismanaging of the crisis. The region’s authorities argued that the lack of testing resources and of laboratories forced them to reduce the number of tests and limit them to urgent cases only. They also point at the latest Ministry of Health recommendations from April 4, in which there is a list of people that should be tested in order of priority (in case there is a limited capacity of tests and a state of necessity), in this list, asymptomatic people figure only if they are healthcare staff. However, the same document states also that “if the diagnostic capacities are not sufficient, it is allowed to further expand the number of additional laboratories identified by the Regions and coordinated by the regional reference laboratories, considering the possibility of using mobile labs or drive-in clinics”. Has Lombardy taken advantage of this last point? Lombardy’s mismanagement, are there causes rooted in the regional healthcare policy? It is still early and rather difficult to assess to what extent Lombardy’s failure was inevitable or if it was the result of flawed and possibly completely wrong decisions of its authorities. However, as a recent review of an Italian newspaper suggests, Lombardy’s healthcare system malfunctioning could be attributed to Lombardy’s healthcare policies over the last decades, which highly incentivized the private sector. Nowadays about half of the region’s HC structures are private. Private structures in Lombardy over the years have specialized in profitable services, such as surgical operations and specialists’ visits, while emergency services- being less profitable- were not developed and left to public structures. As a result of this, even though private health care weighs about half of the entire Lombard healthcare system, it has just over a quarter of the intensive care unit beds in the region. Moving forward in the analysis, this aspect should be taken into consideration in order to understand what could have been done better, especially in the face of future emergency situations. Is the testing strategy the ultimate culprit? It is still unclear the extent to which Lombardy’s testing strategy contributed to its high numbers of cases and deaths. This article aimed at comparing two regions that have many similarities, such as healthcare system advancement, favorable economic conditions, and developed technology. With this in mind, since the two regions’ approaches varied substantially in terms of testing strategy, it is fair to attribute some degree of importance to this, while the research continues to assess responsibilities in order to avoid further mistakes in the future. Pietro Morabito - Senior Analyst Sources https://www.fnopi.it/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Circolare_9_marzo_2020.pdf http://www.trovanorme.salute.gov.it/norme/renderNormsanPdf?anno=2020&codLeg=73799&parte=1%20&serie=null https://www.ilpost.it/2020/05/04/pandemia-coronavirus-lombardia/ https://www.ilpost.it/2020/04/23/tamponi-andrea-crisanti/ http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?area=nuovoCoronavirus&id=5351&lingua=italiano&menu=vuoto https://www.startmag.it/mondo/covid-19-lombardia-veneto/
As the retail sector of the UAE continues to expand, marking its place as 5th among developing countries for future growth, the Health & Beauty segment emerges as a pivotal contributor to this dynamic market. Despite recent signs of saturation, Dubai was still expected to add around 717,000 sqm of new retail space in 2018, while more 467,000 were expected to be added in Abu Dhabi. The overall market was estimated to be worth around USD 55 billion, with up to 16% of annual growth forecasted for the next years, surely benefiting from the Expo 2020 effect. [caption id="attachment_4854" align="alignright" width="384"] Retail market value (USD mn)[/caption] The sector is evolving. From one side, it is adapting to external stimulation such as the recent introduction of the VAT, that has led retailers to increase the value offered to shoppers. From the other side, the sector is innovating from within, given the increasing relevance of online shopping, direct selling and home shopping (6.5% of total market in 2023, from 4.2% in 2018). The Emirates are indeed considered a shopping destination by international tourists, and their spending patterns are quite higher than the average tourist (USD 1,671 against USD 1,105 on average). [caption id="attachment_4855" align="alignright" width="267"] Foreign tourists spending (USD per tourist)[/caption] The country welcomed more than 21 million tourists in 2018 and this number is expected to grow up to 33.5 million by 2028. The expected amount spent by these tourists will exceed USD 55 billion, which will be a conspicuous boost for retail, among other side sectors especially given the traveler propensity to purchase and consume Luxury goods. Many sectors are benefiting and boosting at the same time this general growth, establishing a virtuous circle that serves the entire economy of the country. Among them, the sales of Health & Beauty products almost doubled in the period between 2012 and 2019, when they overall value of product sold is expected to exceed USD 6 billion. With the 46% of market held by the top 6 players, the sector in not particularly concentrated. However, the big pharmacy chains have the lion’s share of this market, with the top 3 retailers recording double digit yearly growth in the last five years. [caption id="attachment_4867" align="alignright" width="895"] Health and beauty - Retail market value (USD mn)[/caption] The sector is regularly attracting further investors, such as O Boticario, the Brazilian retail chain specialized in cosmetic, skin care and fragrances, that recently invested in the country. In parallel, long-lasting players still have to innovate to match the continuously evolving customer demands, replacing non-performing brands with other that match the current client trends. A 2017 survey shows how 43% of customers are spending more than USD 135 on skin care every month, and the spending is forecasted to grow further. While large and expanding figures do attract players from everywhere in the world, success in this market is far for being granted To be able to differentiate their offer from competition, cosmetics and skin care operators need to accurately channel their investments and to establish a bilateral communication with more and more educated customers. [caption id="attachment_4868" align="alignright" width="1198"] Top 3 health & beauty retailer sales (USD mn)[/caption] For instance, most famous international brands leverage brand reputation and already well-known quality, still need to invest millions on product advertisement, press engagement and new social media (ex. by collaborating with Instagram influencers). On another hand, more niche brands need to focus on specific customer segments, engaging them through demo or through a network of doctors able to appreciate and recommend the products to their patients. A deep understanding of the market mechanisms becomes then a must-have to successfully compete in a very promising and dynamic market. Sources: Euromonitor International A.T. Kearney - The 2017 Global Retail Development Index Journal of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences and Applications, 2017 Ardent report, 2016: http://www.ardentadvisory.com/files/GCC-Retail-Sector-Report.pdf Press: https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/local/uae-retail-evolves-from-bricks-to-clicks Press: https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/retail/uae-retail-sector-continues-to-grow- Antonio Pilogallo – Research Manager at INFOMINEO
