Africa

The African Route A Vision Economics have forever known an alchemy-like effect to an equation comprised of resources, gates to the world and logistical facilities. Application of such combination can be seen as early as the Silk Road or as recently as the Trans-European railway network. The impact of such complementary factors is usually the intensification of trade and capital gain. So, imagine a pathway which connects the Nile Valley’s wealth to the diamond rich African Heart; a track bringing together the Gold of the South with the Ancient Ports to the North or the Ivory gates of the West and the Indian Ocean Coast. Such an ambitious network connecting the world’s demand and shortage to the African supply and surplus, and vice-versa, could create a climacteric junction in the history of global economy. This vision, as poetic as it can be, could become a reality and it has been in fact sought. The Cape to Cairo Railway During the colonial era, the British Empire had managed to stretch its arms across the African continent. Seeking opportunity in such circumstances, Cecil Rhodes, a British businessman and politician had a vision of a railway that would connect edges of the Garden of Eden we call Africa. The project was named Rhodes Colossus, in reference to Greek titan statue (Phan, 2012). The main aim of the project was to facilitate the movement of the precious minerals, as well as provide a land supply line. However, due to delays caused by colonial skirmish, economic constraints and the death of Cecil, the railway construction failed, leaving some functional yet not fully linked railways (Talbot, 2015). Surely, times have changed since the conception of this African scale project. So, in order for such a scale project to take place, a feasibility test needs to be undertaken, bearing in mind the diverse range of contemporary factors, opportunities and challenges. Feasibility In terms of economies, it’s clearly visible that over the past 15 years, most African countries had experienced economic growth rates of around 5% per year. However, African states are not amongst the ranks of nations orienting their growth on competitive manufactured products but rather natural resources and domestic market growths (Zamfir, 2016). The question of “why have a trans-regional railway in Africa?” is answered by the African economic atmosphere and the opportunities an infrastructure project connecting land locked minerals to ports would bring the critical mining industry. Given the world’s constant need for African minerals and the ever-expanding global manufacturing and logistics, rapidly moving more amounts of material out of their source and nearer to demand could further improve the competitiveness of exporters. This makes the infrastructure improvement sought by both the private and public sector, as evidence suggests that African regions with longer transport corridors attract higher density of trade (African Economic Outlook, 2017). And on the contrary to how this seems to miss diversification elements developing nations might aspire, better infrastructure could facilitate future industrial projects. Regional scale railways would allow for new manufacturing possibilities owing to the speed with which minerals would travel from source to processing or manufacturing plants (Ott, 2014). A demonstration of the railway speed can be found in the new Chinese funded Standard Gauge train in Kenya. Nonetheless, there is a difference in reasons behind constructing a trans-regional railway in the East or the West and another in connecting East to West. This difference can be divided into purpose and impact. For example, the purpose behind constructing a regional railway connecting Eastern Africa would mainly be connecting the East into a fast shipping system and networking the landlocked areas with the ports that would act as trade hubs. Its impact would be further development of the Eastern African trade with other regions at a geographical marine proximity - Asia in this case. The impact of such a railway would be a surge in African-Asian trade if conducted in the East and African-Western trade if conducted with proximity to the Western shores. On the other hand, a railway connecting East to West would also be aimed at African-African trade as it is inefficient to assume that such a railway would be mainly aimed for international trade. For example, if a container ship is to move from Shanghai to Lagos, it would take 21 days on the shortest maritime route with the average cargo ship speed of 20 knots. While if such a trip was made through unloading in Mombasa and then moving by a railway to Lagos at a speed of 100 km/h, it would take no less than 15 days - assuming the most direct way between both cities can be made into a railway and excluding factors such as transit delays that could be in weeks. This can add expenses and risks to the shipping process which makes it less reasonable to use the railway for intercontinental trade, but rather African-African trade. A railway connecting Egyptian ports to South Africa also faces critical issues when approaching it for intercontinental trade. While it might in fact save time and present an eco-friendly solution to move European cargo by land across the continents poles, it remains less safe than a maritime route given the various organizational, security and legal challenges that might arise. Nonetheless, the impact of such a railway could initially be an improvement to the lagging African-African trade thwarted by the need of an improved infrastructure (Joel Ng And Densua Mumford, 2017). Governments have in fact realized the significance of such a route, which translated into the African Tripartite Free Trade Area agreement denoted to as the “Cape-to-Cairo” free trade zone. The agreement signed in Egypt encompasses nations equating about 60% of African GDP, 1 trillion dollars’ worth markets and 600 million citizens. However, the trade still faces many challenges, one of which is infrastructure (BBC, 2015). After realizing the compatibility of trans-scale railway projects with African internal and external needs, the question of funding is brought to one’s mind. Such scale projects are costly and their payoff is more visible in the long term, making it more feasible to conduct by multiple economies. This brings about the question of “How could such project be funded?” Given the positive outlook on China in Africa and the growing Chinese investment in Africa, it would be reasonable to seek Chinese funding and loans in order to move on with projects that are perhaps the next step in regionalizing African economies. Another factor pointing towards China is the Chinese institutionalization of infrastructure funds through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which might have led the African Bank Chief to express his interest in future cooperation with the AIIB (Reuters, 2015). Moreover, since 2000, China has in fact supported inter-city railway projects in Africa with $9.9 bn worth of aids (Morlin-Yron, 2017). In Mauritania, for example, China provided the state with 70% funds, equating to US$686 mn, in 2008 to create a 430-km long railway connecting coastal Nouakchott to landlocked phosphate sources (Xinhua Agnecy, 2008). Another recent example is the $4 billion Nairobi to Mombasa railway, 90% of which is funded by the Chinese Export Import Bank (David Pilling & Emily Feng, 2017). The project comes in light of Chinese investment in a $13 billion East African railway network being built by the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation. The “Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor” railways are designed to connect Mobasa, Nairobi, Juba, Kampala, Kigali, Bujumbura and other East African cities. This is expected to have an impact on the African-Asian exports, imports, investment, trade and even tourism. Chinese investment is also a funding possibility, where China Railway Materials Commercial Corporation has invested £167 mn in African Minerals Limited in return for stocks. The funds were in turn used to support infrastructure projects needed by the industry (African Minerals, 2010). However, with different regional considerations of proximities and trade interests put in place, Chinese funding my not necessarily always be the answer. Nonetheless, it remains one of the most visible answers to the question. All in all, the trend suggests that regional sized projects are very feasible as some are in fact underway. The current outlook seems to favor trans-regional railways as they present themselves being the more profitable and favorable option, while trans-continental projects are less likely to take place due to the lack of cooperation among different African regions and weakness of African production of goods. Nonetheless, the impact of the ongoing projects will be more visible in the future, and the intensification of trade that happens due to it will certainly set new business grounds worthy of research. Ahmed Soliman, Business Translator at Infomineo. Infomineo is a business research provider, with a focus on Africa and the Middle East. By performing primary and secondary research, Infomineo provides its clients, which include the majority of the leading global management consulting firms and several Fortune Global 500 companies, with high quality data that leads to decision making success. For more information please contact info@infomineo.com or visit www.infomineo.com. References African Economic Outlook. (2017). Trade policies and regional integration in Africa. http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/outlook: AfDB. African Minerals. (2010). Definitive agreements signed with China Railway Materials Commercial Corporation to develop Tonkolili Iron Ore Project. http://www.african-minerals.com/media/press-releases/definitive-agreements-signed-china-railway-materials-commercial-corporation. BBC. (2015). Africa creates TFTA - Cape to Cairo free-trade zone. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-33076917. David Pilling & Emily Feng. (2017). Kenya’s $4bn railway gains traction from Chinese policy ambitions. https://www.ft.com/content/d0fd50ee-1549-11e7-80f4-13e067d5072c: Financial Times. Economic Community Of West Africa States. (n.d.). Transport. http://ecoslate.github.io/transport/index.htm. Joel Ng And Densua Mumford. (2017). The TFTA and intra-regional trade in Africa. https://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/tfta-intra-regional-trade-africa/: How we made it in Africa. Morlin-Yron, S. (2017). All aboard! The Chinese-funded railways linking East Africa. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/21/africa/chinese-funded-railways-in-africa/: CNN. Ott, S. (2014). End of the line for 'Lunatic Express?' Kenya begins multi-billion dollar railway. http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/06/business/end-of-the-line-kenya-railway/: CNN. Phan, S. (2012 ). Cecil Rhodes: The Man Who Expanded an Empire. Teacher Created Materials. Reuters. (2015). Africa bank chief wants to work with China-led AIIB. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-asia-aiib-africa-idUKKBN0N520T20150414. Talbot, F. A. (2015 ). The Railway Conquest of the World. Amberley Publishing Limited. Xinhua Agnecy. (2008). China Exim Bank to finance railway project in Mauritania. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-01/23/content_6417458.htm. Zamfir, I. (2016). Africa's Economic Growth: Taking off or slowing down? European Parliamentary Research Service.      

Kenya has been witnessing major growth in entrepreneurship and innovation, led by a rising interest towards new technologies and mobile connectivity. Today, Kenya is leading the way in terms of digital technology development in Africa. The country has been experiencing a boom in internet and mobile savviness with a 90% mobile penetration as of 2016, among which, 44% of mobile users’ own smartphones. Percentage of people using smartphones in Kenya in 2014 and 2016 The leading innovation that Kenya experienced in the past years has been mainly led by mobile money and instant transfer of funds usage. With 96% of households using mobile money in Kenya, it has become dominant over traditional money transfer solutions that are costly and time consuming compared to mobile money services. Moreover, the leading provider of mobile money, M-PESA, also appealed to rural areas and it is believed to have raised 2% of the population out of poverty. This is as a result of the tendency of users, especially women, to be more enticed and open to doing business with the ease of funding and money transactions offered by M-PESA [2]. Survey results to: “Do you use any mobile money service?”  Moreover, Kenya is ranked first in Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of technology transfer and expenditure on research and development [4]. The government’s engagement in technological advances provided greater opportunities for Kenyans in being more innovation driven and thus, enabled them to be attracted by entrepreneurship and risk-taking. Some of the initiatives led by the Kenyan government to increase the citizen’s approach to entrepreneurship are represented in several public sources of funds for entrepreneurs. These funds target different parts of the population, such as funds dedicated to increasing entrepreneurial access to young people and women as well as sector dedicated funds [5]. The Kenyan government has also put a lot of emphasis on new technologies, through extensive investments in internet infrastructure. In 2014, Kenya was reported to have emerged as a leader in the internet market within the region, holding the highest bandwidth per person in Africa at one of the lowest rates, further increasing internet penetration in Kenya to 52.3% [6]. As a consequence of all the above incentives combined with the accelerating development in the country, many Kenyan entrepreneurs have been recognised for their efforts and inspiring stories. In 2014, nine Kenyans were among Forbes publication on the 30 most promising entrepreneurs in Africa [7]. In 2016, 75 Kenyans were among the 1,000 startup entrepreneurs in Africa that benefited from the Tony Elumulu Foundation Entrepreneurship Program (TEEP), a program that grants an overall $100 million to 1,000 entrepreneurs selected from a pool of 45,000 applicants in 54 countries [8]. In addition to that, the attractiveness of Kenya in terms of entrepreneurial development led the way to the country hosting the 6th edition of the Global Entrepreneurship Summit in 2016. The event was held in the presence of President Barack Obama and presented the US government’s commitment to global entrepreneurship and highlighted the potential in the country [9], emphasising on the attractiveness of the country and the need for investment especially for women and young entrepreneurs [10]. What’s next? The increased government interest towards raising entrepreneurship and digital innovation and acceptance have raised an entrepreneurship-friendly environment, allowing entrepreneurs to connect with peers, create partnerships, boost knowledge and secure investment. While Kenya’s future looks very promising, there is no doubt that the development plans being pursued by its government to tackle corruption and improve education and infrastructure, in order to be in line with the increasingly competitive global startup landscape, will require much effort and continuous monitoring. Sofia Hazim, Analyst at Infomineo. Learn more about Sofia. Sources: [1] Google Consumer Barometer 2016 https://www.consumerbarometer.com/en/trending/?countryCode=KE&category=TRN-NOFILTER-ALL [2] Kate Baggaley, Mobile money helped 2 percent of households in Kenya rise out of poverty, (Dec 2016) http://www.popsci.com/mobile-money-helped-2-percent-households-in-kenya-rise-out-poverty [3]Sauti Za Wananchi, Money Matters: Citizens and financial inclusion in Kenya, (Dec 2016) http://www.twaweza.org/go/sauti-ke-2016-financial-inclusion [4] The Global Entrepreneurship and Development Institute, Kenya, Sub-Saharan Africa and Global Entrepreneurship in 2016, (July 2015) https://thegedi.org/kenya-sub-saharan-africa-and-global-entrepreneurship-in-2016/ [5] Robert Malit, 7 public sources of funding for Kenyan entrepreneurs, (Feb 2016) http://www.herbusiness.co.ke/public-sources-of-funding-for-kenyan-entrepreneurs/ [6] Elayne Wangalwa, Kenya leads Africa's internet access and connectivity, (Sep 2014) http://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/east-africa/2014/09/09/kenya-leads-internet/ [7] Mfonobong Nsehe, 30 Most Promising Young Entrepreneurs In Africa 2014, (Feb 2014) https://www.forbes.com/sites/mfonobongnsehe/2014/02/04/30-most-promising-young-entrepreneurs-in-africa-2014/2/#d403d176d00e [8] Capital Business, 75 Kenyans to benefit from Sh10bn Africa entrepreneurship program, (Oct 2016) http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2016/10/75-kenyans-benefit-sh10bn-africa-entrepreneurship-program/?doing_wp_cron=1488385464.7398579120635986328125 [9] The United States Agency for International Development, (July 2015) https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1860/Entreprenurship%20fact%20sheet.pdf [10] Global Entrepreneurship Summit 2015 http://www.ges2015.org/

A New Wave of Hope: Insights from Pew Research For many decades, Africa has been regarded as the poorest continent in the world. Although significant challenges face the future development in Africa, a rise of optimism in several countries in the continent support the development and vision that the continent holds. A study conducted by the Pew Research Center demonstrated that there is a rise of optimism and hope for future generations in Africa, especially in terms of health care and education. The conclusions were supported by a survey asking respondents whether the next generations will grow in better or worse conditions than the previous ones.1 Contrasting Economic Perspectives Although quantitative figures such as the slower GDP growth rate in Africa can portray a very different picture about the continent’s future economic state, its overall economic outlook is better than that of Europe and the Middle East. The optimist views reported in African nations correlate with the sustained growth that the continent has been experiencing over the past 14 years. Although the growth rate has been lower between 2010 and 2015 (3.3% per year) compared to the period from 2000 to 2010 (5.4% per year), 40% of Africa’s GDP has been generated by economies with accelerating yearly GDP growth. The Foundation of Growth: Reforms and Advancements The sustained growth and advancements that Africa has been experiencing in the past decade started in the 90s. African countries implemented several macro-economic and political reforms that led to a change in the political, economic and regulatory environments. The heathier macro-economic situation in many parts of Africa has significantly decreased budget deficits, foreign debt and inflation. Moreover, these macroeconomic policies focused on increasing Africa’s international trade, with its largest trading partners being China and the EU. Revitalizing Economic and Political Landscapes Economic and political reforms in the continent, such as the strengthening of the legal system and the increasing privatization of state-owned companies, have also played a major role in improving the regulatory environment for doing business. These structural changes stimulated markets and commerce and led to an increased level of investment and willingness to do business in Africa, a substantial increase in disposable income, and a developing tertiary sector. All of these factors and positive changes could explain the optimism observed among African citizens. Africa's Promising Future: A 50-Year Outlook Furthermore, evidence suggests that there is a positive future ahead for Africa in the next 50 years. A report published by the African Development Bank provides insights about the potential growth Africa is most likely to experience in the coming years based on the improvements and reforms made in the past decades. With the continent having abundant natural resources, combined with the economic reforms and improved political state, many African nations are attracting emerging economies such as China and Brazil that have spotted the investment potential in the continent. These advancements suggest that Africa will profit from its dynamic social and economic conditions, which would go in line with its projected positive future. The Power of Optimism in Economic Growth Additionally, from a different standpoint, research indicates that the citizens’ optimism and positive views about their country’s future, positively correlates with economic growth. An article published by Bloomberg argues that pretending to be optimistic is still better for the economy than being pessimistic about a country’s long-term prospects, suggesting that optimistic people work harder, are more confident and live longer, which in turn positively affects business decisions.5 Despite many predictions supporting uncertainty in Africa, the circular causation between the effect of growth on increasing optimism and optimism on furthermore increasing economic growth, suggests that Africa’s future seems in good hands and holds opportunities for development. One might argue that exact predictions would be hard to guarantee, however, it is undeniable that Africa is on the road to change.   Sources: [1] Katy Scott, Optimism is rising in Africa, here’s why, (Dec 2016) Link: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/16/africa/optimism-in-africa/ [2] Georges Desvaux and Acha Leke, Africa’s future? There’s a case for optimism, (Sep 2016) Link: http://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/business/africas-future-theres-a-case-for-optimism-2068354 [3] Ernest & Young, Africa 2030: Realizing the possibilities, (2014) Link: http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-Africa-2030-realizing-the-possibilities/$FILE/EY-Africa-2030-realizing-the-possibilities.pdf [4] African Development Bank, Africa in 50 Years’ Time, The Road Towards Inclusive Growth, (Sep 2011) Link:https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Africa%20in%2050%20Years%20Time.pdf [5] Charles Kenny, How Optimism Strengthens Economies, (Jan 2015) Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-08/how-optimism-strengthens-economies

The African continent, a beacon of African growth, remains one of the fastest-expanding economies globally. Despite this promising trajectory, the economic foundation of many African nations is still predominantly tethered to commodity production and exportation, especially crude oil, underscoring a critical need for diversification and development of internal value-added operations. Oil is a natural resource that commonly attracts a high amount of foreign investment and boosts the main economic indicators of a country. It can be easily used as a proxy for natural resource based economies. Moreover, due to the current commodity crisis for certain economies, with the barrel price sinking in 2014-15 to its lowest level since 2003[1], it is easier to highlight some differences in performance between oil producing and non-oil producing African countries. It is also important to highlight such differences since it provides an opportunity to assess the convenience and sustainability of a development process based on these natural resources. Oil and Non-oil Producing Countries Nineteen of the 54 African countries are currently oil producers, however, it is worth noting the number of produced barrels can considerably vary from one country to another. Those countries are home to about 56% of the African population.[2] Fig.1 - African crude oil producing countries[3] In terms of wealth, the gap between the two groups of countries is evident, when it comes to GDP and GDP per capita. Nevertheless, the growth rates for both indicators show how the recent trends are not necessarily related to the oil economy. In relative values, the non-producing countries show better performance than the producers, but the progress of the two groups of countries can be reasonably compared over the years. Fig. 2 – GDP in USD bln[4] Fig. 3 – GDP growth[5]     Fig. 4 – GDP per capita in USD[6] Fig. 5 – GDP per capita growth[7] It is easy to identify the higher impact that the 2014-15 price crisis had on oil-producing countries, whose overall GDP and GDP per capita fell by 10.0% and 12.2% respectively in 2015. The same crisis could have also been an important factor in the good export dynamics. As the following chart shows, the oil-producing countries’ export precipitated in 2015 (-49.0%), as a result of a negative trend during the last five years. Even the export from non-oil producing countries fell during the same period, but the overall decrease is moderate (-2.0%). Fig. 6 – Export of goods in USD bln[8] Fig. 7 – Export of goods growth (decrease)[9] In terms of attractiveness, the oil economies continue to attract the most attention from foreign investors, despite the fall in oil prices. The producing countries received increasing FDI (+4,7%) with a fluctuating trend in the course of the years. In the last years, the oil-free countries received around 21% to 56% fewer inflows compared to the oil producers, yet still showing an overall +1.0% growth. Fig. 8 – FDI inflows in USD bln[10] Fig. 9 – FDI inflows growth[11] Beyond indicators strictly related to the economy, it is interesting to recognise how the richer oil-producing countries are on average more developed than the others. With reference to human development aspects such as life expectancy, education, and income per capita (enclosed in the elaboration of the Human Development Index), the African oil producing countries show better performance than non-producers. The following chart shows this gap, despite the fact that HDI growth trends are comparable among the two groups of countries. Fig. 10 – Human Development Index[12] Consequences and Recommendations The recent crash in oil markets and commodity prices has harshly affected the global economy, with no immunity offered to developing countries. Saudi Arabia for instance, once thought immune to the downturn in oil prices, was recently declared at the verge of bankruptcy and forced to make its first international bond sale[13] to bring in necessary cash. In Nigeria, the falling oil prices have been claimed to have “a painful effect” on the country’s economy, with the necessary slowdown of the production and a negative impact on the rest of the industry[14]. In Angola, the oil crisis is believed to have unmasked how poorly managed the country really was in the last decade, giving visibility to all the economic and social deficiencies that were concealed by the high growth percentages[15]. Even some non-producing countries have been affected by the negative situation. For example, in Mozambique the realisation of various large projects aiming to benefit from the country’s natural gas resources, whose selling price is strictly related to oil price, has been continuously delayed these past years. This conjuncture created a series of erroneous expectations leading the country into a major economic downturn, with the government taking on more debt assuming an easy repayment, once revenue from LNG started flowing[16]. The IMF pointed out how most of the African countries where energy and mining exports accounted for a larger share of GDP will need to make “sizeable adjustments” to their domestic spending. On the other hand, countries that have invested in infrastructure and strengthened domestic consumption are all expected to grow at rates between 6-7% and more in the next few years. This is the case for the Ivory Coast, Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal and Tanzania[17], leading to the clear but not so obvious conclusion that diversification is an inescapable factor for sustainable growth. Antonio Pilogallo, Associate at Infomineo. Learn more about Antonio.   [1] Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-35345874. [2] Source: Infomineo analysis on WB data [3] Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2241rank.html. Given the very small amount of crude oil production, Morocco has been considered as a non-producing country. [4] Source: Infomineo analysis on WB data [5] Source: Infomineo analysis on WB data [6] Source: Infomineo analysis on WB data [7] Source: Infomineo analysis on WB data [8] Source: Infomineo analysis on UN Comtrade data [9] Source: Infomineo analysis on UN Comtrade data [10] Source: Infomineo analysis on UNCTAD data [11] Source: Infomineo analysis on UNCTAD data [12] Source: Infomineo analysis on UNDP data [13]Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/timdaiss/2016/10/23/we-are-doomed-to-bankruptcy-unless-changes-made-says-saudi-official/#6e9b68d24471 [14] Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-35345874 [15] Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/08/02/how-the-crash-in-oil-prices-devastated-angola-and-venezuela/?utm_term=.816db1e8ab7d [16] Source: http://ww2.frost.com/frost-perspectives/impact-oil-and-gas-price-slump-mozambiques-economy/ [17] Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/10-things-the-imf-wants-you-to-know-about-africas-economy

Ethiopia is a landlocked country split by the Great Rift Valley. It is located in the Horn of Africa, bordering six (6) countries: Djibouti and Somalia to the East, Eritrea to the North and Northeast, Kenya to the South and Sudan and South Sudan to the West. With a population of 94 million (2013) growing at annual rate of 2.5% in 2014, Ethiopia is the second-most populous country in Africa (Moller, 2016). The country is the place of origin for the coffee (Arabica) bean and sometimes referred to as the land of natural contrasts, home to vast fertile West, jungles, and numerous rivers, and also the world’s hottest settlement of Dallol in its North. The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged at 10.9% between 2004 and 2014, which has leapfrogged and positioned the country to become a middle-income country by 2025, after being the second poorest country in the world in 2000 (Moller, 2016). Powered by considerable public infrastructure investment, Ethiopia has witnessed a rapid and stable economic growth, in addition to a decrease in poverty to 30% from 44% in the past decade. Role Agriculture in Ethiopian economy Agriculture is the mainstay of the Ethiopian economy, contributing 41.4% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), 83.9% of the total exports, and 80% of all employment in the country (Matousa, Todob, & Mojoc, 2013). Put in perspective, Ethiopia’s key agricultural sector has grown at an annual rate of about 10% over the past decade; much faster than population growth. Other important sectors are service and industrial sectors contributing 43% and 15.6% respectively (The World Factbook, 2016). On agriculture expenditure related metric, Ethiopia has dedicated an annual investment of about 14.7% of all government spending to the agriculture sector since 2003. Ethiopia is among the few African countries that have consistently met both the African Union’s Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) targets of 10% increase in public investment in agriculture by the year 2008 and boosting agricultural production growth by 6% at least by 2015. Although agriculture is one of Ethiopia’s most promising resource, the sector has been slowed down by periodic drought, high levels of taxation and poor infrastructure that often make it hard and expensive to get goods to market. Also, overgrazing, deforestation and high population density has led to massive soil degradation leading to low productivity. The above problems have made it hard for the country to feed itself—best exemplified by the dramatic 1984-85 famine. Since then, the country has experienced similar occurrences that expose a sizeable population to humanitarian needs. As things stand, over 3 million Ethiopians need food and other humanitarian assistance annually (SIDA, 2015). However, a critical look at the sector shows a high potential for self-sufficiency in grains and also for the development export especially for livestock, vegetables, fruits and grains. Further, many other economic activities depend on agriculture. These include processing, marketing and export of agricultural products among others. Sectoral overview Ethiopia has about 51.3 million hectares of arable land. However, just over 20% is currently cultivated, mainly by the smallholders. Over 50% of all smallholder farmers operate on one (1) hectare or less. Smallholder producers, which are about 12 million households, account for about 95% of agricultural GDP. Agricultural production is mainly subsistence, and a large portion of the country’s commodity exports is provided by the small agricultural cash-crop sector. Key agricultural sectors Coffee & tea; Ethiopia has a great potential for coffee production, thanks to the country’s abundant rainfall, optimum temperatures, conducive altitude and fertile soil. Over 60% of Ethiopian coffee is produced as forest coffee, and therefore the use of fertilizers is usually unnecessary as the falling leaves enrich forest floor. Also, the use of chemicals such as pesticides, fungicides among others is limited since the high genetic diversity in the forest creates a balance between parasites and pests (Ethiopian Coffee Exporters Association, 2016). Ethiopia is Africa’s largest coffee producer, and the fifth world’s producer contributing some of the world’s finest coffees. The country accounts for over 3% of the global coffee market. Coffee is by far the country’s largest foreign exchange earner. In 2013/14, Ethiopia exported 190,734 metric tons earning US$ 749 million. Some of the major destinations of the Ethiopian coffee are Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan, USA, Belgium and France, importing over 70% of the country’s total coffee exports (Tefera, Abu, 2015). While Ethiopia has a potential to grow all types of tea, the country produces only black tea, with a production capacity of 7,000 tons of black tea per annum. According to the country’s ministry of industry, the tea industry has been lacking investment (Ethiopia’s Ministry of Industry, 2016). Thus, investment potential exists in large-scale commercial tea production as well as modern tea packing and blending industries.  Cereals; In FY 2014/15, cereals’ overall agricultural production increased by 45% (EUBFE, 2015). Maize, for instance, is one of the most important crop in Ethiopia of which the country is Africa’s second biggest maize producer. Mainly grown in SNNPR and Oromia regions in about 1.77 million ha. Other important cereals are wheat and barley mainly in Oromia and some parts of Amhara Regions in about 1 million ha and 1.4 million ha respectively. There are also opportunities for wheat production under irrigation in the SNNPR, Afar, Gambella and Somali Regions. Livestock & Fishery sector; Ethiopia’s livestock population is believed to be the largest in Africa, and tenth in the world. The sector accounts for about 10% of Ethiopia’s export income, with leather and leather products making up 7.5% and live animals 3.1%. The country is home to about 49 million heads of cattle, 22 million heads of goats, 17 million heads of sheep and 38 million chickens. The country also has demonstrated potential for fishery development in its freshwater lakes, reservoirs and rivers. Other investment potential areas in this sector include fish, milk & meat processing, raising and fattening of sheep, goat, cattle and camel (Ethiopia’s Ministry of Industry, 2016). Ethiopia’s Investment potential Ethiopia’s economy is growing with a wide range of opportunities for investment. However, Ethiopia remains an unexploited market and untapped for investors. Out of the total investment projects approved between 1992 and 2012, FDI’s share accounted for about 15.8%, with China, India, Germany, Italy, Sudan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, the UK, Israel, Canada and the US being the major source of FDI. While that was a great progress going with the country’s history, there has only been a slight increase since 2012 both in the total number of projects and capital invested (Ethiopian Investment Commission, 2015). The country’s continued public investments in infrastructure is remarkable as well as its new industrial policy geared towards diversification and transformation of the economy (EUBFE, 2015). Ethiopia has competitive advantages in agriculture and agro-processing and sugar owing to the country’s favorable climatic conditions and types of soil suitable for the production of a variety of crops. The conditions are suitable for growing major food crops such as cereals, pulses, and oilseeds. Some of the sectors that also have great potential for investment include organic coffee cultivation, sugar cane, tea and spices, cotton (and textile), a broad range of fruits and vegetables and cut flowers. Ethiopia’s competitive market access Apart from a population of around 94 million people (2013) positioning Ethiopia as potentially one of Africa’s largest domestic markets, the above sectors are equally suitable for the fast-growing export market. By virtue of being a COMESA member, bringing together 19 countries with a total population of 400 million, Ethiopia also has preferential market access to these countries. The country’s closeness to the Middle East also gives potential market opportunities in addition to qualifying for preferential access to the EU market under the EU’s Everything-But-Arms initiative and to the US markets under the AGOA and the Generalized System of Preference (GSP). Ethiopian products have access to these markets quota and duty-free. Erickson Oduya, Research Associate at Infomineo – Know more about Erickson References Agricultural Transformation Agency. (2015). Annualy Report, 2013/14: Transforming Agriculture in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa: ATA. Retrieved from http://bit.ly/2anaCE8 Ethiopian Coffee Exporters Association. (2016, July 24). Major Growing Areas. Retrieved from ECEA: http://bit.ly/2agk7WM Ethiopian Investment Commission. (2015). Ethiopia: A Preferred Location for Foreign Direct Investment in Africa. Addis Ababa: Ethiopian Investment Commission. Retrieved from http://bit.ly/2a5fIUw Ethiopia's Ministry of Industry. (2016, July 24). Agricultre Sector Investment Opportunities. Retrieved from Ministry of Industry: http://bit.ly/2aiahov EUBFE. (2015). Ethiopia Economic and Trade Report. Addis Ababa: European Business Forum in Ethiopia. Retrieved from http://bit.ly/2a1uQY6 Matousa, P., Todob, Y., & Mojoc, D. (2013). Roles of extension and ethno-religious networks in acceptance of resource-conserving agriculture among Ethiopian farmers. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 11(4) , 301-316. Moller, L. C. (2016). Ethiopia’s Great Run: The Growth Acceleration and How to Pace It. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Retrieved from http://bit.ly/29HrOTI SIDA. (2015). Ethiopia's Humanitarian Crises Analysis. Addis Ababa. Retrieved from http://bit.ly/29S64Iv Tefera, Abu. (2015). Ethiopia Coffee Annual MY15/16. USDA FAS. Retrieved from http://bit.ly/1FJj345 The World Factbook. (2016, July 11). Ethiopia Country Profile. Retrieved July 15, 2016, from http://bit.ly/1yAYHLA